Elon Musk has made another bold prediction about the future of self-driving cars. In a conversation held at the World Government Summit in Dubai, the Tesla CEO stated that nearly all new cars would be self-driving within the next ten years.
Musk predicts that the first level four autonomous cars from Tesla will arrive by the end of this year. He views this arrival as a paradigm shift for the automobile industry:
"There are about 2 billion cars in the world and the total annual production capacity is about 100 million cars, which makes sense since the average life of a car before being totally scrapped is about 20-25 years." This means that the shift to driverless cars won't be immediate, but "the point for which we see autonomy appear will not be the point when we see a massive impact on people because it will take a lot of time to make enough autonomous vehicles to disrupt. That disruption will take place for about 20 years."
Musk also mentioned how the supercomputer used to control Tesla's vehicles, the NVIDIA Drive PX 2, can reach level five autonomy. NVIDIA thinks that level 4-5 autonomy would only be possible with two supercomputers, but even so, Musk stated that the computers could easily be upgraded to rise the occasion.
We won't have to wait long to see how his predictions will play out.
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