Gambling has taken over the country. But it’s not just sports betting that’s emptying wallets. Now, the rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi to bet on almost any conceivable outcome, ranging from presidential elections to military interventions to celebrity dramas to the return of our lord and savior Jesus Christ.
The nature of the wagers open up whole new avenues of insider trading and other dishonest practices. Take, for example, the Polymarket bet on the number of tweets Elon Musk will make between February 6 and February 13, which currently has nearly $15 million worth of bets placed. What’s stopping Musk from seeing this and telling a friend how much he’s going to tweet? The answer: practically nothing — hence the numerous scandals that have already emerged over this clear vulnerability.
Just as nefarious is that prediction markets have perfected a wildly addictive formula, especially among young, inexperienced bettors. Part of the appeal is that instead of betting against the house, these platforms claim, you’re betting against other players (though the fine print suggests otherwise). It’s also simpler: either the thing happens, or it doesn’t happen. Adding to that, the prediction markets project credibility through partnerships with news organizations like CNN, which now display their data during broadcasts.
All of this is clearly working. Some users don’t even think of betting as the kind of activity that was once fodder for mob movies and New Hollywood tragicomedies, and more as an investment.
“I wouldn’t describe it as gambling” but a “mix of betting and options trading,” 21-year-old Yadin Eldar, a Florida State University student who’s been betting on prediction markets since 2019, told The Guardian. “It’s not like when you go to the casino, and play against the house, and hope you get to win against the house,” he added. “That’s not what it is.”
Given their freshness in the mainstream, there isn’t as much hard data on prediction markets yet. But one recent analysis found that Polymarket and Kalshi users were losing money faster compared to traditional sports gambling platforms. (The finding was so controversial that Kalshi lashed out by accusing the report of being part of an “extortion plot” before backing down.)
In any case, it’s clear that gambling apps are on an upward trajectory. A study in JAMA Internal Medicine found that online searches for gambling addiction help rose 23 percent between 2018 — the year a court ruling essentially legalized sports betting — and 2023. During roughly that same period, total sports wagers skyrocketed from $4.9 billion to $121.1 billion. An early 2025 survey showed that nearly a quarter of US adults admitted to being sports betting addicts, which was an even higher 37 percent with Gen Z.
And prediction markets in particular appear to be winning over the youth. Another survey from this January showed that millennials and Gen Z were more aware of specific prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi than older demographics, while the opposite tended to be true for traditional sports betting platforms.
One 25-year-old former financial risk analyst told NPR he quit his job to bet on Kalshi and Polymarket full time. Another 25-year-old who started his own company to trade on prediction markets told The Wall Street Journal he lost around $100,000 in bets he placed on the Super Bowl.
“It seems like everything is gambling now, and the appetite for gambling on the most obscure stuff is pretty bonkers,” Danny Funt, author of the new book “Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling,” told Axios. “This is seemingly reaching new levels.”
“This used to be something people did discreetly,” he added. Now, it’s “normalized.”
More on gambling: It Seems Almost Statistically Impossible That This Polymarket Bettor Didn’t Profit Off Inside Knowledge About the Super Bowl Half Time Show