For months, experts have warned that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket were ripe for abuse. Now, some Israeli soldiers may have proved them right in particularly grisly fashion: by betting on strikes they allegedly helped plan.
According to the Wall Street Journal, several Israeli citizens, including a number of Israeli Defense Force reservists, have been arrested over the use of classified information to place Polymarket bets.
Per the WSJ‘s reporting, one as-yet anonymous Polymarket account, ricosuave666 — an apparent nod to the Latin pop superstar — made seven predictions about Israel’s twelve-day war with Iran last June, before walking away with over $150,000 in combined bets. Others took notice at the time, though the account went dormant for about six months.
It finally reactivated in January, reportedly to bet on Israel’s next strike on Iran. Though Israel carried out plenty of other strikes in January as tensions remained steady with Iran, a direct attack on the Islamic Republic hasn’t been reported.
Many mysteries remain. Since the WSJ published its article, it seems the Polymarket account has been scrubbed, and the publication didn’t confirm ricosuave66 was one of the accounts under investigation.
Still, the news follows a number of other fishy-looking inside trades, like the bettor who made out like a bandit after an improbable bet placed just hours before the deadly kidnapping of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the US military.
If the Israeli bettors are shown to be military insiders, their case is sure to become the exemplar of everything wrong with prediction markets — like the fact that they allow bets on violent international events in the first place.
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