New Report Finds That China's Space Program Is Rapidly Outstripping NASA

While the sitting US government strips NASA of its expert leadership and funding, it seems China is more than happy to take up the mantle.

A new report from the Commercial Space Federation, a lobbying group fighting for the interests of the privatized space industry, found that China's space program is experiencing a meteoric rise, and will soon pose a significant challenge to the US' dominant position in space.

Posed as a "risk assessment" of the pressure Chinese competition puts on "American influence" in space, the report paints a stark picture.

"China's decade of steady progress in space is now reshaping the competitive landscape and may soon challenge US leadership and commercial strength," it reads. "The risks extend beyond technology to markets, partnerships, and governance, signaling a pivotal moment in global space competition."

Among the paper's key findings is that Chinese commercial space investment has exploded over recent years. In 2015, the People's Republic spent just $340 million on its non-government space industries. By 2024, the report claims, it'd invested $2.86 billion, the vast majority of which came from central, municipal, or provincial governments.

Indeed, in 2024, China has made rapid progress on its lunar and planetary exploration programs, which it shares with international space agencies through initiatives like the International Lunar Research Station (in fact, the country even shares lunar samples with the US, despite tensions between the two countries that preclude virtually all collaboration in space research.)

NASA's long-awaited Artemis Mars program, meanwhile, seems almost frozen in its tracks.

"This rapid progression, combined with China’s proven track record — such as the world’s first lunar far-side sample return — signals not just technological ambition but a deliberate bid to redraw partnerships of deep space exploration," the Commercial Space Federation paper frets.

In addition, China now boasts six spaceports, over six regional research hubs to fuse academic, commercial, and government research, and a low-orbit space station that's set to take the place of NASA's International Space Station after it's retired without a replacement in 2030. The People's Republic recently topped the UK in total satellites in orbit, now second behind the US, which relies almost entirely on private companies like SpaceX to launch payloads.

As if this weren't enough, China is leading the world in international space infrastructure projects via its Belt and Road Initiative, with some 80 collaborative programs in satellite fabrication, launch systems, ground control, data sharing, and training facilities currently underway, according to the report.

"The trend line is unmistakable," the report huffs, "China is not only racing to catch up — it is setting pace, deregulating, and, at times, redefining what leadership looks like on and above Earth."

While it's difficult to compare the US to China for a number of reasons — in fact, a fairer economic contrast for China would be India — the fact that the People's Republic is catching up to the US in spaceflight at all is staggering.

In 1981, when NASA was old enough to drink, China was one of the poorest countries on earth, with some 800 million citizens living in extreme poverty.  In the four decades since, China has eradicated extreme poverty — the largest such alleviation in history — while making steady progress on a space program that's now among the most accomplished in the world.

With decades of lead time, the US arguably remains the dominant force in space for now — but unless it can bring NASA back to its former glory, those days could soon be numbered.

More on China: Chinese AI Companies Are Using an Absurd Loophole to Get Around US Chip Restrictions