Although hundreds of billions of dollars have been poured into AI development, nearly 75 percent of businesses have failed to deliver the return on investment promised to them. The hyped up tech is notoriously buggy and in some ways now actually getting worse, with project failure rates on the rise.

Despite staring into the maw of a colossal money pit, tech CEOs are doubling down, announcing plans to increase spending on AI development, going as far as laying off armies of workers to cut down on expenditures.

And while some investors footing the bill for big tech's AI bacchanalia are starting to wonder when they'll see cash start trickling back into their pockets, private equity billionaire Robert Smith isn't one of them.

Speaking at the SuperReturn conference in Berlin last week, Smith told a crowd of 5,500 of his fellow ultrarich investors that at least 60 percent of them would be out on the street within a year thanks to the power of AI.

"We think that next year, 40 percent of the people at this conference will have an AI agent and the remaining 60 percent will be looking for work," Smith lectured. "There are 1 billion knowledge workers on the planet today and all of those jobs will change. I’m not saying they’ll all go away, but they will all change."

"You will have hyperproductive people in organizations, and you will have people who will need to find other things to do," the investor ominously intoned.

Smith was speaking primarily about "AI agents," a vague sales term that mostly seems to mean "large language model that can complete tasks on its own." For example, OpenAI rolled out a research "Operator" that was supposed to help compile research from all over the web into detailed analytical reports earlier this year.

There's only one issue with the billionaire's prediction — AI agents so far remain absolutely awful at doing all but the simplest tasks, and there's little indication the industry is about to rapidly revolutionize their potential anytime soon. (OpenAI's Operator is no exception, often conflating internet rumor with scholarly fact.)

Meanwhile in the real world, a growing number of businesses that rushed to replace workers with AI agents, like the financial startup Klarna, have now come to regret their decision as it largely blows up in their faces.

It doesn't take an AI agent to scrape together another explanation for Smith's absurd claim. His private equity fund, Vista Equity Partners, is among the largest in the world. Dealing almost exclusively in software and tech, Smith has a cozy relationship with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and just raised $20 billion for AI spending — its largest fund to date.

Now responsible for billions of dollars in investments that are tied down to a disappointing AI industry, it's really just a matter of time for Smith before his claims either pay out — or the chickens come home to roost.

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