--- title: "New Projection: World Population Will Level off, Then Fall Forever" description: "A new book predicts that instead of continuing to rise, the population will level out in about 30 years — and then start to decline, possibly forever." date: "2019-02-06" modified: "2019-02-06" authors: - name: "Jon Christian" job_title: "Executive Editor" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jonc" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/world-population-will-fall-never-stop" categories: - "Future Society" tags: - "economy" - "political science" - "population" - "the digest" --- # New Projection: World Population Will Level off, Then Fall Forever ![A new book predicts that instead of continuing to rise, the population will level out in about 30 years — and then start to decline, possibly forever.]() *\Image: NASA\* ## Soylent Green The [conventional wisdom]() is that the global population is hurtling toward catastrophe — some project it could hit a staggering [11 billion]() by the year 2100. But a new book examines the data and comes to a radically different conclusion: instead of continuing to rise, the population will level out in about 30 years — and then [start to decline](), possibly forever. ## Stand on Zanzibar The book is called "Empty Planet," and it was written by journalist John Ibbitson and political scientist Darrell Bricker. Their key argument: access to information is changing people's outlook on reproduction around the world and rapidly shifting the old norms around families and fertility. "We polled 26 countries asking women how many kids they want, and no matter where you go the answer tends to be around two," Ibbitson said in a [new interview]() with *Wired*. "The external forces that used to dictate people having bigger families are disappearing everywhere. And that's happening fastest in developing countries." ## Caves of Steel Ibbitson and Bricker's vision is a bold one, and it would be premature to throw out conventional population projections until experts have had a hard look at their figures. But it's going to be important to nail down the future of population trends, the pair argue — because it affects decisions we're making now. "A lot of people who are thinking about the future of the world, the future economy, the future of city planning, they’re basing their projections on that future size of the human population," Bricker told *Wired*. "And people are actually making decisions based on this." **READ MORE:** [The World Might Actually Run Out of People]() \[*Wired*\] ***More on overpopulation:*** *[Elon Musk: The World’s Population Is Accelerating Towards Collapse]()* ## Author I'm responsible for editing, assigning, and scouting at Futurism, as well as occasionally writing for the site. That work involves keeping an eye on a wide range of narratives and issues, but over the past few years I've become increasingly interested in how AI is shaping the future of media, the web, and information itself. My day-to-day often involves collaborating on reporting and commentary projects bylined by my colleagues, but I try to find time to do my own reporting as well; stories I've broken for Futurism have been cited by publications including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the New Yorker, Wired, Ars Technica, New York Magazine, the Columbia Journalism Review, Bloomberg, and more. I grew up in Southern Vermont and attended Vanderbilt University. Prior to Futurism, I contributed to outlets including the Boston Globe, Vice, Wired, Slate, the Atlantic, the Outline, Ars Technica and more, and did stints in farming and food service. I currently live in Brooklyn, New York, and in my free time I enjoy pinball, word games, cycling, running, and music production. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()