--- title: "There Will Be Fewer People Alive in 2100 Than Now, Experts Predict" description: "A new report re-evaluating the long-feared \"population bomb\" has found that the number of people on Earth isn't going to explode, but rather decrease." date: "2023-03-31" modified: "2023-03-31" authors: - name: "Noor Al-Sibai" job_title: "Senior Staff Writer" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/nooralsibai" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/world-population-bomb-decrease" categories: - "Climate Change" - "Environment" - "Science & Energy" tags: - "climate" - "overpopulation" - "population bomb" - "the digest" --- # There Will Be Fewer People Alive in 2100 Than Now, Experts Predict ![A new report re-evaluating the long-feared "population bomb" has found that the number of people on Earth isn't going to explode, but rather decrease.]() *\Image: Getty / Futurism\* ## Population Bob-omb A new report reevaluating the long-feared "population bomb" has found not only that such an explosion in birthrates is unlikely given our current trajectory, but also that the global population will likely peak within this century before falling. In a new study commissioned by the non-governmental organization [Club of Rome]() and carried out by the [Earth4All nonprofit collective](), researchers found that, due to "a paradigm shift in demographics over the past 50 years," population growth rates worldwide have been far more sluggish than Paul and Anne Ehrlich expected when they published "The Population Bomb" in 1968, a volume which spurred fears of overpopulation for generations. While the Ehrlichs' book correctly predicted a quadrupling of the global population to its current standing of about [eight billion](), Earth4All's [press release]() notes, there's little fear that it will again double to 16 billion — and in fact, we might not even get up to nine billion before it starts shrinking instead. "The global population could peak at a much lower level — around nine billion — by mid-century," the collective predicts. "And if the world invests more in economic development, education, and health, the global population could fall to levels at which everyone on Earth can have sustainable access to clean energy, shelter, food, and water." "The bomb will have been defused," the press release declares — but there is, as always, a catch. ## Crossroads That caveat? "This \[research\] gives us evidence to believe the population bomb won’t go off, but we still face significant challenges from an environmental perspective," Ben Callegari, one of [the report]()'s authors, [told *The Guardian*](). "We need a lot of effort to address the current development paradigm of overconsumption and overproduction, which are bigger problems than population." Earth4All and its benefactors see two likely scenarios playing out in the future: either governments continue going about business as usual and fail to head off "regional societal collapse," especially in "the most vulnerable, badly governed and ecologically vulnerable economies," or countries begin taxing their wealthiest citizens to invest in social services and education, which would have something of a positive spillover effect on the environment and civil rights. Overpopulation, in short, isn't going to be what destroys the planet as people used to think — but the choices people in power make now absolutely still could. **More on population control:** [*Shocking Study Finds 99 Percent of the World Population Is Breathing Harmful Air*]() ## Author At Futurism, I've often been drawn to unpacking the narratives that underlie technological, scientific and medical progress, with a special interest in areas of conflict and ambiguity that end up setting agendas and steering the fates of both elites and the hoi polloi. I'm a committed generalist, but I often find myself returning to work involving NASA and the private space sector, the effects of AI on media and society, and the mechanics of the pharmaceutical industry, with a specific focus on the spread of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. Prior to Futurism, I worked for publications ranging from Media Matters and Truthdig to Raw Story and Bustle. I'm also the author of "Myspace Scene Queens," a 2024 title in Instar Books' acclaimed "Remember the Internet" series. My work at Futurism has been cited by outlets including the New Yorker, Slate, Nieman Lab, the Verge, the MIT Technology Review, the Sunday Times, and the Daily Beast. I grew up in North Carolina, attended the University of North Carolina at Asheville, and now live in Brooklyn, New York. In my free time, I'm an avid reader and music fan; you can probably find me at a local poetry reading, concert, underground rave, or DJ set. I'm the proud parent of an ineffable orange cat named Mee-Mow. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()