--- title: "Scientists Say They Can Predict Earthquakes by Analyzing Tiny Changes in GPS Data" description: "Scientists have found that tiny changes in GPS signals could allow us to predict large earthquakes roughly two hours early." date: "2023-07-24" modified: "2023-07-24" authors: - name: "Victor Tangermann" job_title: "Senior Editor" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/victor" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/scientists-predict-earthquakes-analyzing-gps-data" categories: - "Science & Energy" tags: - "earthquakes" - "GPS" - "seismology" - "the digest" --- # Scientists Say They Can Predict Earthquakes by Analyzing Tiny Changes in GPS Data ![Scientists have found that tiny changes in GPS signals could allow us to predict large earthquakes roughly two hours early.]() *\Image: Getty / Futurism\* ## Ground Breaking Scientists have found that tiny changes in GPS signals could allow us to predict large earthquakes roughly two hours in advance, a potentially livesaving new way of mitigating disasters. The team analyzed GPS data from 90 large earthquakes, of magnitude 7 and above, and found evidence for a preceding phase in which the fault lines of tectonic plates start slipping, eventually resulting in powerful tremors. While we've found ways to predict the [imminent eruption of volcanoes](), earthquakes have remained notoriously difficult to anticipate. "The existence of an observable precursory phase of slip on the fault before large earthquakes has been debated for decades," Université Côte d'Azur earthquake researchers Jean-Mathieu Nocquet and Quentin Bletery write in a [new paper]() about the research published in the journal *Science*. ## The Big One Previous efforts have failed to accurately predict major earthquakes, in large part due to the fact that we don't fully understand the connection between these signals and actual seismic activity. Many of these signals "do not directly precede earthquakes, are not seen before most events, and are also commonly observed without being followed by earthquakes," the paper reads. But by analyzing observed slips in GPS data taken by some 3,000 stations across the globe, the two researchers found a roughly two-hour-long "exponential acceleration of slip before the ruptures, suggesting that large earthquakes start with a precursory phase of slip." In other words, we may have just stumbled upon a reliable way to give residents substantial advanced notice. "If it can be confirmed that earthquake nucleation often involves an hours-long precursory phase, and the means can be developed to reliably measure it, a precursor warning could be issued," University of California, Berkeley, seismologist Roland Bürgmann wrote in an [accompanying piece for *Science*](). ## Shake Shack But more research still needs to be done until we can confidently say we've discovered a new way to predict the next big quake. For one, we still aren't entirely certain whether we could actually measure these precursor slips to "provide a useful warning," as Bürgmann argued. "It will be important to fully explore how often similar slow slip episodes occur as false starts, without being followed by earthquakes." The data could nonetheless prove useful if "integrated into automated earthquake early-warning systems," he added, allowing scientists to let people know that "it is time to let go of sharp utensils and get ready to 'Drop, Cover, and Hold On,' before the Big One strikes." **More on earthquakes:** *[Scientists Discover Leak in the Bottom of the Ocean]()* ## Author I've been at Futurism since 2017, where my role has evolved to encompass design, writing, and increasingly editing. I've always been fascinated by space exploration and advanced transportation, which I've leaned into by interviewing luminaries in those fields while closely following the dimensions of policy and regulation that allow next-generation projects to succeed -- or, sometimes, to fail. I'm also keenly interested in the effects of generative AI on society, policies, and democratic institutions, as well as clean energy, physics and biology, and the vagaries of tech leadership. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Ars Technica, Gizmodo, PC Magazine, Jalopnik, Fox News, and the New York Post. I spent my childhood living in locations including Manila, the Philippines, and Geneva, Switzerland, attended McGill University, and now live in Toronto, Canada. Before Futurism I worked at AskMen and a small photography studio. In my free time, I'm an avid gardener, foodie, and craft beer lover, as well as a maker of artisanal hot pepper sauces. I have a magnificent dog named Freida. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()