--- title: "Robotics Expert Says AI Hype Is Due for a Brutal Reality Check" description: "In his latest tech industry scorecard, famed roboticist Rodney Brooks soberly warns of an impending \"AI winter.\"" date: "2024-01-07" modified: "2024-01-07" authors: - name: "Frank Landymore" job_title: "Contributing Writer" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/flandymore" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/robotics-expert-ai-hype-reality-check" categories: - "Artificial Intelligence" tags: - "artificial intelligence" - "generative ai" - "large language models" - "the digest" --- # Robotics Expert Says AI Hype Is Due for a Brutal Reality Check ![In his latest tech industry scorecard, famed roboticist Rodney Brooks soberly warns of an impending "AI winter."]() *\Image: Getty / Futurism\* ## Winter Is Coming Famed roboticist Rodney Brooks, who co-founded the company iRobot — which invented the Roomba — has been keeping score on the AI industry. And from where he's standing, the near future of AI isn't looking too hot, in spite of its countless hype men who he says are due a harsh reality check. In his [latest annual Predictions Scorecard]() on the tech sector, the former director of MIT's AI and computer labs warns that despite its unprecedented levels of success, the AI industry is merely "following a well worn hype cycle that we have seen again, and again, during the 60+ year history of AI." More than likely, Brooks avers, advancements in the field will stagnate for many dark years before reaching the next huge breakthrough. That dry spell could make for quite a calamitous comedown for an industry that's supposedly on track to be [worth over $1 trillion by the next decade](). "Get your thick coats now," Brooks wrote in his scorecard, [as quoted by *The Los Angeles Times*](). "There may be yet another AI winter, and perhaps even a full scale tech winter, just around the corner. And it is going to be cold." ## Dog Days Brooks made his original predictions on technological advancements as such: as happening by a specified year, as happening no earlier than a specified year, and "Not In My Lifetime" (NIML) meaning not before 2050. Then with each year that passes, he judges these as accurate, too pessimistic, or too optimistic. Often, his wagers are on the money. As the *LA Times* notes, Brooks predicted back in 2018 that the "next big thing" in AI would happen sometime between 2023 and 2027. The [rise of large language models]() like OpenAI's [ChatGPT]() turned out to fit that bill perfectly, with practically every leader in tech trying to [capitalize on the trend]() with [smart chatbots]() of their own that have garnered their creators [billions of dollars in investment](). But going forward, Brooks takes a more measured stance. The *next* next-big-thing, often framed as [artificial general intelligence]() and [hyped up by industry heads as being imminent](), is in Brook's opinion a resounding "NIML." In fact, he's skeptical that we'll even be able to create "a robot that seems as intelligent, as attentive, and as faithful as a dog" before 2048. "This is so much harder than most people imagine it to be," he wrote, as quoted by the *LA Times*. "Many think we are already there; I say we are not at all there." Still, Brooks isn't saying the AI industry is doomed, mind you, but that such ambitious technological advancements take time — and a lot of it. Whether the industry's financial backers are ready to hunk down and play the long game, though, is more dubious. **More on AI:** *[ChatGPT Says It's Reached the Limit of How Silly It Can Make the Goose]()* ## Author At Futurism, my work has often centered on bringing a sense of clarity and insight to complex topics ranging from the regulation of emerging technologies to the esoteric ideologies of Silicon Valley executives, while striving not to lose the poetic sense of awe inspired by often-obscure fields like astrophysics and quantum computing. I broke the story of CNET using AI to produce articles that turned out to be riddled with factual errors and plagiarism — a dam-breaking inflection point, as I've reported, that's inspired copycats and endless discourse while beguiling stakeholders ranging from tech giants to purveyors of spam around the web. My work at Futurism has been cited by publications including CBS News, the Los Angeles Times, Vice, Gizmodo, Engadget, the Verge, and Vanity Fair. I grew up in locales ranging from India to China, and now live in the exotic suburbs of Virginia. In my free time, I'm an avid reader of weird sci-fi literature, an aficionado of East Asian cinema, and, regrettably, a relapsed gamer. Allegedly, I’m working on a debut novel, currently untitled. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()