---
title: "Scientists Are Hopeful AI Could Help Predict Earthquakes"
description: "## Quake Rate"
date: "2018-10-26"
modified: "2018-10-26"
authors:
  - name: "Jon Christian"
    job_title: "Executive Editor"
    link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jonc"
url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/predict-earthquakes-ai"
categories:
  - "Artificial Intelligence"
tags:
  - "artificial intelligence"
  - "earthquake"
  - "seismology"
  - "the digest"
---

# Scientists Are Hopeful AI Could Help Predict Earthquakes

![AI could help predict earthquakes](<https://futurism.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/predict-earthquakes.png>)
*AI could help predict earthquakes \<em\>Image: Emily Cho\</em\>*

## Quake Rate

Earlier this year, I interviewed U.S. Geological Survey geologist Annemarie Baltay for [a story](<https://theoutline.com/post/3829/we-still-cant-predict-major-earthquakes>) about why it's incredibly difficult to predict earthquakes**.**

"We don’t use that 'p word' — 'predict' — at all," she told me. "Earthquakes are chaotic. We don’t know when or where they’ll occur."

## Neural Earthwork

That could finally be starting to change, according to a [fascinating feature](<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/technology/earthquake-predictions-artificial-intelligence.html>) in *The* *New York Times*.

By feeding seismic data into a neural network — a type of artificial intelligence that learns to recognize patterns by scrutinizing examples — researchers say they can now predict moments after a quake strikes how far its aftershocks will travel.

And eventually, some believe, they'll be able to listen to signals from fault lines and predict when an earthquake will strike in the first place.

## Future Vision

But like Baltay, some researchers aren't convinced we'll ever be able to predict earthquakes.University of Tokyo seismologist Robert Geller told the *Times* that until an algorithm actually predicts an upcoming quake, he'll remain skeptical.

"There are no shortcuts," he said. "If you cannot predict the future, then your hypothesis is wrong."

**READ MORE:** [A.I. Is Helping Scientist Predict When and Where the Next Big Earthquake Will Be](<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/technology/earthquake-predictions-artificial-intelligence.html>) \[*The New York Times*\]

***More on earthquake AI: [A New AI Detected 17 Times More Earthquakes Than Traditional Methods](<https://futurism.com/ai-earthquakes-traditional-methods>)***

## Author
I'm responsible for editing, assigning, and scouting at Futurism, as well as occasionally writing for the site. That work involves keeping an eye on a wide range of narratives and issues, but over the past few years I've become increasingly interested in how AI is shaping the future of media, the web, and information itself. My day-to-day often involves collaborating on reporting and commentary projects bylined by my colleagues, but I try to find time to do my own reporting as well; stories I've broken for Futurism have been cited by publications including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the New Yorker, Wired, Ars Technica, New York Magazine, the Columbia Journalism Review, Bloomberg, and more. I grew up in Southern Vermont and attended Vanderbilt University. Prior to Futurism, I contributed to outlets including the Boston Globe, Vice, Wired, Slate, the Atlantic, the Outline, Ars Technica and more, and did stints in farming and food service. I currently live in Brooklyn, New York, and in my free time I enjoy pinball, word games, cycling, running, and music production.

### Author social links  
[Bluesky](<https://bsky.app/profile/jonchristian.net>)