--- title: "Crypto Prediction Platform Polymarket Was Utterly Wrong About the New Pope" description: "Cardinal Robert Prevost shocked the world, succeeding Pope Francis to become the first American Pope. Polymarket bettors were surprised, too." date: "2025-05-08" modified: "2025-05-08" authors: - name: "Maggie Harrison Dupré" job_title: "Senior Staff Writer" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/mharrison" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/polymarket-new-pope" categories: - "Blockchain" - "Cryptocurrency" - "Future Society" tags: - "crypto" - "polymarket" - "pope" - "the digest" --- # Crypto Prediction Platform Polymarket Was Utterly Wrong About the New Pope ![Cardinal Robert Prevost shocked the world, succeeding Pope Francis to become the first American Pope. Polymarket bettors were surprised, too.]() *\Image: Ernesto Ruscio via Getty / Futurism\* ## Papal Predictor Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market where users can place bets on events ranging from national elections to [natural disasters](), got the Pope odds *way* wrong. Those forecasts were reflected in Polymarket as well as the similar platform Kalshi, which both took a hard turn toward Parolin as the public caught sight of [white smoke](), [according to *Axios*](). Meanwhile, market betters had Prevost hovering around a one-to-two percent chance of becoming the next Pope. And yet, in a stunning twist of fate, it was the American-born Robert Prevost — a graduate of Villanova and the conclaver with the highest likelihood of ever consuming a hot dog and/or $1.99 pizza slice from Costco — who clinched the title. According to a s[creenshot]() posted to X-formerly-Twitter by *Brew Markets*, Prevost was sitting at around 0.03 percent when his shock election was announced. In short, Polymarketers were absolutely blindsided — highlighting how Polymarket's [oft-exalted]() predictive prowess isn't always [all it's cracked up to be](). https://twitter.com/brewmarkets/status/1920546769269604441 ## Vatican Bombshell The Vatican shocked the world today when the [Chicago-born]() American and Peruvian was [named]() Pope Leo XIV before taking to the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica to greet the world as Holy Father. Prevost is the first American Pope, and appears to be the first Pope to [retweet]() Catholic Snoopy posts. Though Prevost was an ally of his predecessor, the late Pope Francis, he was by no means seen as the frontrunner; most [expected]() either Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin or Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle to ascend to the papacy. The hard swing towards Parolin in the moments before the announcement broke was likely due to the conclave's speediness, as *Axios* pointed out. Anyway, if you're a Polymarket who bet on the American Prevost to win the papacy, email us! **More on Polymarket:** [*Crypto Platforms Like Polymarket Now Taking Bets on Los Angeles Fire Devastation*]() ## Author At Futurism, I've reported extensively on the rise of AI as a cultural and business force shaping the media industry, and more broadly how those dynamics are changing how we all consume and share information and relate to one another. I'm also fascinated by public health policy and ethics, the role of emerging tech in politics and governance — and the powerful people and forces at those intersections — climate change, and the environment. My investigation on Sports Illustrated's use of AI-generated authors with fictional biographies won a 2024 Mirror Award for "Best Story on Media Coverage of Artificial Intelligence in Journalism and the Media" from Syracuse University's SI Newhouse School, I contributed to Niemen Lab's 2025 Predictions for Journalism series, and I've discussed my work for Futurism during appearances on NPR, CNN, the BBC, the CBC, and more. I grew up in rural Pennsylvania and attended the University of Massachusetts Amherst, where I played Division I field hockey for the Minutewomen as a midfielder. Since then, I've lived in New Orleans, Louisiana and Manhattan, New York. I spend my free time running, reading, perusing archival fashion, and searching for the world’s best negroni. I also have a debonair tuxedo cat, Westley, who's named after "The Princess Bride." ### Author social links [Bluesky]()