--- title: "MIT Professor Says There’s a One-in-Six Chance of Nuclear War" description: "Very Grim These, as we know, are not internationally chill times — so much so that, unfortunately, nuclear war has been on much the collective mind. But while verbal — and in North Korea's recent case, physical — nuclear threats have been made, how likely is it? A seemingly impossible question, though one that MIT […]" date: "2022-10-12" modified: "2022-10-12" authors: - name: "Maggie Harrison Dupré" job_title: "Senior Staff Writer" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/mharrison" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/mit-professor-chance-nuclear-war" categories: - "Future Society" tags: - "nuclear crisis" - "nuclear war" - "Russia" - "the digest" --- # MIT Professor Says There’s a One-in-Six Chance of Nuclear War ![How likely is a nuclear war? A seemingly impossible question, though one that MIT professor Max Tegmark believes he has the answer to.]() *\Image: Getty Images\* ## Very Grim These, as we know, are not internationally chill times — so much so that, unfortunately, nuclear war has been on much the collective mind. But while verbal — and in [North Korea's recent case](), physical — nuclear threats have been made, how likely is it that we'll see an actual nuclear conflict? It's a seemingly impossible question, but one MIT physics professor Max Tegmark believes he has the answer to. "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war," the professor [wrote on the blog *LessWrong*](). "My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six." Great. https://twitter.com/tegmark/status/1578911288859987968 ## Kaboom vs. KABOOM Tegmark's argument centers on a David vs. Goliath framework — the former being Ukraine, the latter being Russia. And within that dynamic, the professor explores a series of possible outcomes and their likelihoods. His worst case scenario is labelled "KABOOM," which in his words marks "a major US-Russia nuclear war that might cause nuclear winter and kill most people on Earth." But again, that's worst case, and Tegmark offers a number of other scenarios that might happen either instead of KABOOM or en route to it. "'Kosovo' & 'Vietnam' refer to scenarios where one side wins outright (breakaway succeeds & Goliath is expunged, respectively)," he writes, "'Libya,' 'Korea' & 'Finland' refer to intermediate outcomes involving simmering war, frozen war and full peace, respectively." The academic ultimately concluded through his risk model that — based mostly on his own psychoanalysis of Putin, NATO, and the general world public — there's an 80 percent chance that NATO will take some form of collective military action against Russia; a 70 percent chance that Russia will retaliate against that NATO offensive with nuclear weapons, which could ultimately bring us to KABOOM territory; and a 30 percent chance that both sides decide to de-escalate. Distill those percentages, and as Tegmark writes, you get a roughly one-in-six figure. ## Geopolitical Shituation It's important to remember that Tegmark's guess is, in a way, as good as anyone's. There's no true scientific model for human nature, which is what this ultimately comes down to. Nuclear war doesn't just happen. A button, somewhere, has to be pressed — though that seems to be exactly what the prof is trying to remind us. **READ MORE:** *[Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war]()* \[*LessWrong*\] **More on nuclear war:** *[Horrific Simulation: Nuclear War Would Kill Five Billion People]()* ## Author At Futurism, I've reported extensively on the rise of AI as a cultural and business force shaping the media industry, and more broadly how those dynamics are changing how we all consume and share information and relate to one another. I'm also fascinated by public health policy and ethics, the role of emerging tech in politics and governance — and the powerful people and forces at those intersections — climate change, and the environment. My investigation on Sports Illustrated's use of AI-generated authors with fictional biographies won a 2024 Mirror Award for "Best Story on Media Coverage of Artificial Intelligence in Journalism and the Media" from Syracuse University's SI Newhouse School, I contributed to Niemen Lab's 2025 Predictions for Journalism series, and I've discussed my work for Futurism during appearances on NPR, CNN, the BBC, the CBC, and more. I grew up in rural Pennsylvania and attended the University of Massachusetts Amherst, where I played Division I field hockey for the Minutewomen as a midfielder. Since then, I've lived in New Orleans, Louisiana and Manhattan, New York. I spend my free time running, reading, perusing archival fashion, and searching for the world’s best negroni. I also have a debonair tuxedo cat, Westley, who's named after "The Princess Bride." ### Author social links [Bluesky]()