--- title: "Elon Musk: Next Starship Test Has 60% Chance of Not Exploding" description: "Elon Musk tweeted that there is a 60% chance of Starship test launch success, and a 40% chance of the Starship exploding. Learn why." date: "2021-02-15" modified: "2021-02-17" authors: - name: "Jon Christian" job_title: "Executive Editor" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jonc" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/elon-musk-starship-chance-not-exploding" categories: - "Elon Musk" - "Future Society" - "Space" - "SpaceX" - "Starship" - "The Industrialists" tags: - "elon musk" - "SpaceX" - "Starship" - "the digest" --- # Elon Musk: Next Starship Test Has 60% Chance of Not Exploding ![SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says there's a 60 percent chance Starship will land successfully this time — leaving a 40 percent chance of failure.]() *\Image: Steve Jurvetson via Flickr / NASA Spaceflight / Futurism\* ## Big Bang Last time SpaceX tested a prototype of its experimental Starship spacecraft, it [blew up in an epic fireball](). And the time before that, the prior version [met the same fate](). Now, with another Starship test slated for as early as this week, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says there's a 60 percent chance the spacecraft will land successfully — leaving, by our calculation, a 40 percent chance of failure. ## Launch Code Musk [tweeted his probability estimate]() over the weekend, in response to [a poll]() asserting that the launch would be this coming week — a tacit acknowledgement that the company is at least nominally targeting this week for another launch. Of course, that'll only be possible if SpaceX manages to smooth over the problems it's been having with the Federal Aviation Administration, which [halted the company's last doomed Starship launch]() after deeming it insufficiently safe. ## Starshipper If SpaceX does manage to land Starship — a distinct possibility, because the company unquestionably has a [track record building impressive spacecraft]() — it'll be a large step toward Musk's long term vision for off-planet colonization. That's because Starship has a striking variety of uses compared to the standard rocket. The plan is for it to shuttle cargo and crew to the Earth's orbit, from point to point on the surface, and even to destinations as far away as the Moon and Mars. And it sounds as though as soon as this week, we'll get to see whether the company has made any progress toward that goal. **More on Starship:** [Elon Musk Breaks Silence on Starship Crash: “We Were Too Dumb”]() ## Author I'm responsible for editing, assigning, and scouting at Futurism, as well as occasionally writing for the site. That work involves keeping an eye on a wide range of narratives and issues, but over the past few years I've become increasingly interested in how AI is shaping the future of media, the web, and information itself. My day-to-day often involves collaborating on reporting and commentary projects bylined by my colleagues, but I try to find time to do my own reporting as well; stories I've broken for Futurism have been cited by publications including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the New Yorker, Wired, Ars Technica, New York Magazine, the Columbia Journalism Review, Bloomberg, and more. I grew up in Southern Vermont and attended Vanderbilt University. Prior to Futurism, I contributed to outlets including the Boston Globe, Vice, Wired, Slate, the Atlantic, the Outline, Ars Technica and more, and did stints in farming and food service. I currently live in Brooklyn, New York, and in my free time I enjoy pinball, word games, cycling, running, and music production. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()