--- title: "Data Scientist Predicts Kamala Harris Will Win By a “Landslide” in November" description: "A data scientist who correctly predicted the 2020 election is betting Kamala Harris will win big over Donald Trump." date: "2024-09-19" modified: "2024-09-19" authors: - name: "Noor Al-Sibai" job_title: "Senior Staff Writer" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/nooralsibai" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/data-scientist-predicts-kama-harris-landslide" categories: - "Cybersecurity" - "Data Privacy" - "Future Society" tags: - "data science" - "donald trump" - "kamala harris" - "the digest" --- # Data Scientist Predicts Kamala Harris Will Win By a “Landslide” in November ![A data scientist who correctly predicted the 2020 election is betting Kamala Harris will win big over Donald Trump.]() *\Image: Saul Loeb / AFP via Getty\* ## Market Forces A data scientist who correctly predicted a series of recent elections is back to throw his analytical hat in the ring — and he's betting that Kamala Harris is going to win big in November. As [*Fortune* reports](), Northwestern University's Thomas Miller startled pundits and pollsters when he called not only the presidential race for Joe Biden, but also [two close Senate races in Georgia](). When doing so, he not only got the winners right, but also the amount they'd win by, and in all three contests came within 10 points of the final tally. Using his same complex number-crunching models, Miller is now forecasting not only that Harris will win against her rival Donald Trump, but that she'll do so with 449 of 573 electoral college votes, [per his Virtual Tout modeling website](). The Northwestern data scientist's approach relies not on canvassing likely voters, as traditional pollsters do, but on election betting markets. To Miller's mind, polls are a "snapshot of the recent past" and use sample sizes too small — generally between 500 and 1500 people — to accurately reflect the electorate. Betting markets are, per the scientist, the "best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd." ## Predict This Rather than being based on political ideals, these predictive markets are built upon cold hard cash, and because people are placing bets hoping to profit, they're guessing who they expect to win rather than who they want to vote for. In both the 2020 presidential race and this year's election, Miller used data from Predictit, the biggest election betting site. By breaking the betting tallies into jurisdictions and tracking hourly changes, the scientist is able to then feed the information into his bespoke model that spits out daily odds. As Miller explains on The Virtual Tout, the bespoke model that correctly forecasted the 2020 presidential race has suggested since September 10 — the day of the Harris-Trump debate — that the vice president would usher in a "Democratic landslide" in November. "Both parties’ election prospects changed dramatically on September 10," the site explains, in the wake "two critical events": the debate, and pop megastar Taylor Swift's subsequent endorsement of Harris. Before that, it was "practically a tossup," he said. While only time will tell whether Miller is going to be right again, he seems correct in pointing out one of the key themes in this year's horserace: that "it’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris" in the wake of Biden's exit from the race. A reversal of fortunes on this level has, as Miller told the magazine, never been seen before — but then again, neither has anything else that's occurred in recent political history. **More on the 2024 elections:** [*Stranded Astronauts Say They’ll Vote From Space*]() ## Author At Futurism, I've often been drawn to unpacking the narratives that underlie technological, scientific and medical progress, with a special interest in areas of conflict and ambiguity that end up setting agendas and steering the fates of both elites and the hoi polloi. I'm a committed generalist, but I often find myself returning to work involving NASA and the private space sector, the effects of AI on media and society, and the mechanics of the pharmaceutical industry, with a specific focus on the spread of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. Prior to Futurism, I worked for publications ranging from Media Matters and Truthdig to Raw Story and Bustle. I'm also the author of "Myspace Scene Queens," a 2024 title in Instar Books' acclaimed "Remember the Internet" series. My work at Futurism has been cited by outlets including the New Yorker, Slate, Nieman Lab, the Verge, the MIT Technology Review, the Sunday Times, and the Daily Beast. I grew up in North Carolina, attended the University of North Carolina at Asheville, and now live in Brooklyn, New York. In my free time, I'm an avid reader and music fan; you can probably find me at a local poetry reading, concert, underground rave, or DJ set. I'm the proud parent of an ineffable orange cat named Mee-Mow. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()