--- title: "Major Cuts in Shipping Pollution Actually Made Climate Change Worse, Scientists Find" description: "The sulfur emissions had helped cool the planet before they were significantly curtailed in 2020, the study found." date: "2024-05-31" modified: "2024-05-31" authors: - name: "Frank Landymore" job_title: "Contributing Writer" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/flandymore" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/cuts-in-shipping-pollution-climate-change-worse" categories: - "Climate Change" - "Environment" - "Pollution" - "Science & Energy" tags: - "climate change" - "global warming" - "pollution" - "the digest" --- # Major Cuts in Shipping Pollution Actually Made Climate Change Worse, Scientists Find ![The sulfur emissions had helped cool the planet before they were significantly curtailed in 2020, the study found.]() *\Image: Getty / Futurism\* ## Heat Check In 2020, the International Maritime Organization [passed a global standard]() to drastically cut down on the use of high-sulfur fuels in the shipping industry. It did what it set out to do almost immediately, with NASA scientists finding [noticeably less pollution along shipping lanes]() that same year. But now, new research suggests that the environmental measure may have had the unintended effect of *worsening* climate change — at least in the short run. As detailed in a [study](), published in the journal *Communications Earth & Environment* and [spotlighted by ]()[*The Guardian*](), those airborne particles, or aerosols, were actually helping to block heat from the Sun. Once they were steeply curtailed, however, more solar radiation was able to stay trapped in our atmosphere — a phenomenon that could help explain why [2023 was the hottest year on record]() by a huge margin. The findings illustrate the unpredictable complexities of both modeling and combating climate change, while also serving as a preview of the risks of [solar geoengineering efforts]() to cool our sweltering planet. ## Global Warm-up The researchers used satellite observations and a chemical transport model to calculate radiative forcing, or the change in energy in the Earth's atmosphere, after the curtailing of sulfur emissions. They confirmed that the measure reduced human aerosols in the atmosphere along shipping routes. In turn, that caused an average uptick of about 0.2 watts per square meter of radiative forcing — though this strongly varied from region to region. For reference, a global doubling of CO2 levels would cause [about 4 watts per square meter]() of radiative forcing — so it's a "big number," study co-author Tianle Yuan at the University of Maryland [told *The Guardian*](), especially since "it happened in one year." "We will experience about double the warming rate compared to the long-term average [\[since 1880]()\]," Yuan added. However, some scientists have since pointed out that there are simply too many uncertainties involved to definitively say how much of the heating is attributable to the sulfur drop-off. "The \[pollution cut\] is certainly a contributing factor to the recent warmth, but it only goes a small way toward explaining the 0.3C, 0.4C, and 0.5C margins of monthly records set in the second half of 2023," Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist from the University of California, Berkley who was not involved in the study, told *The Guardian*. ## Second Thoughts At any rate, the work should give pause to advocates of solar geoengineering techniques, such as [marine cloud brightening](), which involves pumping aerosols into the atmosphere to block sunlight. Even if these techniques worked, scientists fear that we'd have to keep them up forever. Otherwise, there could be a "[termination shock]()" — the moment we stop releasing aerosols, global temperatures would sharply climb again, and then we'd find ourselves in the same, if not worse, pickle. The abrupt curtailing of sulfur emissions from the shipping industry, the researchers say, inadvertently served as an experiment illustrating this effect. Still, take this as just one piece of the puzzle. It doesn't necessarily mean we should discount these radical methods completely — and it definitely doesn't mean that we should give up on curtailing pollution, either. **More on climate change:** *[Mexico Getting So Hot That Monkeys Are Falling Dead From Trees]()* ## Author At Futurism, my work has often centered on bringing a sense of clarity and insight to complex topics ranging from the regulation of emerging technologies to the esoteric ideologies of Silicon Valley executives, while striving not to lose the poetic sense of awe inspired by often-obscure fields like astrophysics and quantum computing. I broke the story of CNET using AI to produce articles that turned out to be riddled with factual errors and plagiarism — a dam-breaking inflection point, as I've reported, that's inspired copycats and endless discourse while beguiling stakeholders ranging from tech giants to purveyors of spam around the web. My work at Futurism has been cited by publications including CBS News, the Los Angeles Times, Vice, Gizmodo, Engadget, the Verge, and Vanity Fair. I grew up in locales ranging from India to China, and now live in the exotic suburbs of Virginia. In my free time, I'm an avid reader of weird sci-fi literature, an aficionado of East Asian cinema, and, regrettably, a relapsed gamer. Allegedly, I’m working on a debut novel, currently untitled. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()