--- title: "Scientists Say If We’re Extremely Lucky, This Asteroid May Put Us Out of Our Misery" description: "Astronomers have spotted a space rock, an estimated 200 feet in length, that they say just may be headed for Earth." date: "2025-01-30" modified: "2025-01-30" authors: - name: "Victor Tangermann" job_title: "Senior Editor" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/victor" url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/asteroid-near-earth-collision-2024-yr4" categories: - "Off-World" - "Space" tags: - "asteroids" - "near-earth objects" - "the digest" --- # Scientists Say If We’re Extremely Lucky, This Asteroid May Put Us Out of Our Misery ![Astronomers have spotted a space rock, an estimated 200 feet in length, that they say just may be headed for Earth.]() *\Image: ESA\* ## Christmas Surprise Astronomers have spotted a space rock, an estimated 200 feet in length, that they say just may be headed for Earth. As the [*New York Times* reports](), the rock, dubbed 2024 YR4, has a 1.3 percent chance of putting us out of our misery on December 22, 2032 — a fate we just might deserve, considering our [incredibly careless stewardship]() of the planet. "Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 83," University of Arizona researcher David Rankin wrote in a [post on Bluesky](). "This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever." "Most likely outcome is still a near miss," he added. "We continue to track it!" On a serious note, that potential collision course probably shouldn't keep us up at night, Rankin assured the *NYT*. If it *were* to collide with our planet, it wouldn't threaten the entire thing, though it could easily wipe out an entire city. An asteroid roughly similar in size impacted a remote region of Siberia in 1908, [obliterating 800 square miles of forest](). ## Dat Asteriod 2024 YT4 comes in at a three on the Torino Impact Hazard scale, which measures the probability of an asteroid striking the Earth. A three, [according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab](), means that it's an "encounter, meriting attention by astronomers," plus attention "by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away." It's the second-highest rating astronomers have ever given an asteroid, following 1300-feet-across space rock Apophis, which [previously reached a record of four]() in December 2004, but has since been demoted to level one. Rankin has also argued that 2024 YR4 could similarly be ruled out in future observations. Some experts celebrated the most recent finding, arguing it highlights our improving ability to predict an incoming threat. "The international systems we’re putting in place to find, track and characterize — and, if it comes to it, mitigate the impacts of — hazardous asteroids and comets are working as intended," Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory planetary defense researcher Andy Rivkin told the *NYT*. **More on near-Earth asteroids:** *[Mysterious "Fifth Force" of Physics Could Be Influencing Asteroids Near Earth]()* ## Author I've been at Futurism since 2017, where my role has evolved to encompass design, writing, and increasingly editing. I've always been fascinated by space exploration and advanced transportation, which I've leaned into by interviewing luminaries in those fields while closely following the dimensions of policy and regulation that allow next-generation projects to succeed -- or, sometimes, to fail. I'm also keenly interested in the effects of generative AI on society, policies, and democratic institutions, as well as clean energy, physics and biology, and the vagaries of tech leadership. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Ars Technica, Gizmodo, PC Magazine, Jalopnik, Fox News, and the New York Post. I spent my childhood living in locations including Manila, the Philippines, and Geneva, Switzerland, attended McGill University, and now live in Toronto, Canada. Before Futurism I worked at AskMen and a small photography studio. In my free time, I'm an avid gardener, foodie, and craft beer lover, as well as a maker of artisanal hot pepper sauces. I have a magnificent dog named Freida. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()