---
title: "A 2010 Scientific Paper Predicted That 2020 Would Be a Shitshow"
description: "In 2010, a scientist published research suggesting that 2020 would be a total shitshow. It goes without saying he really nailed it."
date: "2020-06-11"
modified: "2020-06-11"
authors:
  - name: "Dan Robitzski"
    link: "https://futurism.com/authors/danrobitzski"
url: "https://futurism.com/the-byte/2010-scientific-paper-predicted-2020-shitshow"
categories:
  - "Science & Energy"
tags:
  - "finance"
  - "future predictions"
  - "politics"
  - "the digest"
---

# A 2010 Scientific Paper Predicted That 2020 Would Be a Shitshow

![In 2010, a scientist published research suggesting that 2020 would be a total shitshow. It goes without saying he really nailed it.](<https://futurism.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2010-Scientific-Paper-Predicted-2020-Shitshow.jpg>)
*\<em\>Image: Needpix\</em\>*

## Paging Nostradamus

The year 2020 has heralded a seemingly endless onslaught of political, economic, and societal chaos.

But surprisingly, [one scientist predicted](<https://futurism.com/group-people-good-predicting-future>) our particularly hellish year a full decade ago. University of Connecticut researcher Peter Turchin [published an article](<https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a>) in the journal *Nature,* back in 2010, in which he predicted that social and economic turmoil would [come to a boiling point](<https://futurism.com/the-byte/futurist-predicts-end-of-the-world>) in or around 2020.

## Convergence Point

Turchin, who studies math, ecology and evolutionary biology, and anthropology at the University of Connecticut, identified multiple cycles of economic growth and turmoil, [rises in public debt](<https://futurism.com/the-byte/young-people-choosing-live-pods>), and [disgruntled 20-somethings](<https://futurism.com/experts-protests-unlikely-cause-huge-wave-covid-cases>) — all of which were set to converge this year in the U.S.

"Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent — and predictable — waves of political instability," Turchin wrote in the paper.

## History Repeats

Turchin identified 50-year cycles in political instability and 40 to 60-year cycles of economic growth and turmoil, called [Kondratiev waves](<https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kondratieff-wave.asp>), that suggested particularly severe recessions were coming. To be fair, he didn't guess that a deadly pandemic would also happen at the same time.

"Records show that societies can avert disaster," Turchin wrote. "We need to find ways to ameliorate the negative effects of globalization on people's well-being. Economic inequality, accompanied by burgeoning public debt, can be addressed by making tax rates more progressive. And we should not expand our system of higher education beyond the ability of the economy to absorb university graduates."

**READ MORE:** [Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade](<https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a>) \[*Nature*\]

**More future predictions:** *[Futurist Predicts "The End of the World as we Know it"](<https://futurism.com/the-byte/futurist-predicts-end-of-the-world>)*

## Author
Dan Robitzki is a senior reporter for Futurism, where he likes to cover AI, tech ethics, and medicine. He spends his extra time fencing and streaming games from Los Angeles, California.

### Author social links  
[Twitter](<https://x.com/danrobitzski>)