--- title: "An Internal Tesla Analysis Found the Robotaxi Would Lose Money, and You’ll Never Guess What Elon Musk Did in Response" description: "Instead of focusing on a safe and affordable $25,000 EV, Musk gave the greenlight to the Cybercab, waving away a damning internal report." date: "2025-04-17" modified: "2025-04-17" authors: - name: "Joe Wilkins" job_title: "Correspondent" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jwilkins" url: "https://futurism.com/tesla-analysis-robotaxi-musk" categories: - "Advanced Transport" - "Elon Musk" - "Future Society" - "Tesla" - "The Industrialists" tags: - "elon musk" - "robotaxi" - "tesla" --- # An Internal Tesla Analysis Found the Robotaxi Would Lose Money, and You’ll Never Guess What Elon Musk Did in Response ![Instead of focusing on a safe and affordable $25,000 EV, Musk gave the greenlight to the Cybercab, waving away a damning internal report.]() *\Image: Tesla / Getty / Futurism\* Back in October of 2024, Tesla investors and fanboys alike flocked to Hollywood for the company's "[We, Robot]()" event. The company's backers hoped Musk would finally unveil the long-awaited "[$25,000 Tesla]()" — a lower-budget EV that was sure to rejuvenate sales as the costly [Cybertruck flopped]() — but what they got was anything but. Instead, the event kicked off with a visibly stiff Elon Musk waving to the crowd and climbing into a garish gold sedan. It was our [first peak at Cybercab](), Tesla's self-driving taxi platform. The event also rolled out a bizarro pill-shaped prototype called Robovan and gave a live demonstration of Optimus, a supposedly AI-powered humanoid robot. Each product came with [limited details]() and [vague delivery timelines]() from Musk. Tesla's stocks [immediately slipped]() the next morning while serious investors derided the event as a bunch of "cheap parlor tricks." Optimus [subsequently sputtered]()**,** and we haven't heard a peep about the Robovan. It's the Cybercab — which is slated to be so committed to the self-driving vision that it won't have a steering wheel or pedals — that Musk is [betting the future of the company on](), and it's poised to take its first big test in a [citywide rollout]() across Austin, Texas this summer. But for it to be successful, the Cybercab will have to survive the [sprawling Texas roads]() and outcompete established rideshare competitors like Uber and Lyft, not to mention the successful self-driving outfit Waymo, which has [already rolled out in Austin](). And that's without getting into Donald Trump's tariffs, which are already wreaking havoc on the Cybercab's [production plans](). Tesla's robotaxi will also have to contend with Musk's ever-irrational ego trips. In new reporting, [*The Information* found]() that when an internal Tesla analysis suggested that the Cybercab would was unlikely to sell well or become profitable, Musk buried the report instead of facing reality. "We had lots of modeling that showed the payback around \[Full Self Driving\] and Robotaxi was going to be slow," Rohan Patel, Tesla's former head of business development and policy who left the company last year, told the outlet. "It was going to be choppy. It was going to be very, very hard outside of the US, given the regulatory environment or lack of regulatory environment." Per *The Information*, the internal analysis was based on Musk's own hare-brained assumptions that "individuals would buy the cars, but a large portion of the sales would go to fleet operators, and the vehicles would mostly be used for ride-sharing." In addition, "many people would give up car ownership and use Robotaxis" and "Tesla would get a cut of each Robotaxi ride." Along with some other executives, Patel used this analysis to highlight how much more reasonable it was to focus on the $25,000 vehicle, but Musk shrugged it off. Instead, he axed the [$25,000 Tesla program]() altogether, and went all-in on the Cybercab. "Ultimately, I think Elon is just uninterested in making a \[Volkswagen\] Golf-type car," a source close to the situation told *The Information.* "It just doesn’t wake him up in the morning. He was, 'Let somebody else do it.'" To make matters worse, Musk then [turned down Uber's offer]() to partner with Tesla and provide Cybercab's client-side software, opting to go it alone instead. Musk's robotaxi will now have to compete with Uber for a piece of the rideshare pie in a city that's already dominated by [privately-owned vehicles](). Now, with Musk's self-imposed summer deadline looming closer by the day, the company is hemorrhaging [high-level talent]() — and [bleeding stock value]() like a stuck pig. If there was ever a time for Musk to roll up his sleeves and focus on Tesla, this would be it. Too bad he's probably [gaming in his government office](). **More on Tesla:** [*Tesla Accused of Hacking Odometers to Rip Off Customers*]() ## Author At Futurism, I focus on the intersection of technology and power — examining the economics, history, and politics behind today’s dystopian headlines. As a writer, I’m interested in topics ranging from AI’s impact on labor to startups nobody asked for. My prior work includes bylines in Jacobin, Verso, and Blue Labyrinths. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Forbes, The Guardian, MIT Technology Review, Time, The Nation, Mother Jones, The Verge, and Wired. I grew up in Michigan, attending Central Michigan University as well as Ball State University, where I earned a master of music. I now live in Brooklyn with my girlfriend and our cat Ziti. On weekends, you can find me hunched over a cold pint arguing geopolitics with the other transplants. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()