--- title: "World Braces for Nearly a Half Million El Niño Deaths" description: "According to the latest estimates, some 451,000 lives \"will be lost due to heat in the first half of this El Niño.\"" date: "2026-09-24" modified: "2026-09-24" authors: - name: "Victor Tangermann" job_title: "Senior Editor" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/victor.md" url: "https://futurism.com/science-energy/world-braces-half-million-el-nino-deaths" categories: - "Climate Change" - "Environment" - "Global Warming" - "Science & Energy" --- # World Braces for Nearly a Half Million El Niño Deaths ![Intense flames engulf palm trees during the Los Angeles wildfires of 2025.]() *Shutterstock* As climate change continues to rear its ugly head, this summer has been [particularly brutal]() for much of the planet. A "super El Niño," a heightened version of a recurring natural climate pattern that [triggers unusually hot temperatures](), has resulted in the perfect storm, endangering a staggering number of lives with extreme weather. The prognosis is grim, if not catastrophic. According to the [latest report]() by scientists at the research organization Climate Impact Lab, some 451,000 lives "will be lost due to heat in the first half of this El Niño, compared to a normal year." "The estimate of 451,000 people is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives," said cofounder and University of Chicago professor Michael Greenstone in an accompanying [statement](). It doesn't bode well, considering the current weather pattern will stick around until at least spring 2027, meaning that the death toll could "grow even higher, particularly as impacts such as higher-than-average temperatures and heat-related deaths will linger into June and July" next year. Areas of the globe hit particularly hard are largely found in the southern hemisphere. Regions across northern Africa, South East Asia, and Latin America are expected to see the "largest increase in heat-related deaths over the next six months." The most impacted countries, as identified by Climate Impact Lab, are Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. However, we're not entirely helpless. With the help of humanitarian organizations, governments can send out heat warnings, reach out to vulnerable populations, provide cooling centers and hydration stations, and expand health system capacity as needed. "This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months," Greenstone explained in the statement. But to effectively intervene and save at least some of these endangered people could soon become even more difficult thanks to the worsening effects of climate change. As such, the Climate Impact Lab ominously warns that this year's El Niño is a "postcard from our future." "Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year," said report coauthor and University of California, Berkeley, assistant professor Tamma Carleton in a statement. "But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency." **More on El Niño:** [*The Ocean Hasn’t Been This Hot in 125,000 Years, Alarmed Researcher Suggests*]() ## Author I've been at Futurism since 2017, where my role has evolved to encompass design, writing, and increasingly editing. I've always been fascinated by space exploration and advanced transportation, which I've leaned into by interviewing luminaries in those fields while closely following the dimensions of policy and regulation that allow next-generation projects to succeed -- or, sometimes, to fail. I'm also keenly interested in the effects of generative AI on society, policies, and democratic institutions, as well as clean energy, physics and biology, and the vagaries of tech leadership. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Ars Technica, Gizmodo, PC Magazine, Jalopnik, Fox News, and the New York Post. I spent my childhood living in locations including Manila, the Philippines, and Geneva, Switzerland, attended McGill University, and now live in Toronto, Canada. Before Futurism I worked at AskMen and a small photography studio. In my free time, I'm an avid gardener, foodie, and craft beer lover, as well as a maker of artisanal hot pepper sauces. I have a magnificent dog named Freida. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()