--- title: "Polymarket Quietly Takes Down Bet On Nuclear Detonation" description: "Polymarket has quietly removed a bet on the possibility of a nuclear weapon being detonated before next year." date: "2026-03-04" modified: "2026-03-04" authors: - name: "Frank Landymore" job_title: "Contributing Writer" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/flandymore" url: "https://futurism.com/science-energy/polymarket-nuclear-detonation" categories: - "Blockchain" - "Cryptocurrency" - "Energy" - "Finance" - "Future Society" - "Military" - "Science & Energy" --- # Polymarket Quietly Takes Down Bet On Nuclear Detonation ![A bright, fiery mushroom cloud from a nuclear explosion dominates the left side of the image, with intense yellow, orange, and red hues against a dark background. On the right side, there is a stylized, vintage illustration of a similar mushroom cloud in orange, teal, and cream colors, framed with a torn paper effect.]() *Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: Getty Images* The crypto-based prediction sensation Polymarket has quietly taken down a bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated before next year. The [bet](), which was first listed last November, [generated significant controversy]() on social media Tuesday after it was flagged by several users. Polymarket had also highlighted the bet on its official X account that day, [tweeting]() that its market now predicted there was a 22 percent chance a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year. The post has since been deleted — and the [bet itself]() has now been "archived" as of Wednesday morning. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The *Wall Street Journal* [reported]() that the nuclear detonation bet had spiked in popularity after the US and Israel's deadly strikes in Iran. Before the attacks broke out, only $10,000 in bets had been placed on Friday, according to data from the *Block* cited by the newspaper. But on Tuesday, the daily trading volume had surged to almost $244,000, bringing the total amount of money on the line to over $830,000. It's unclear why the bet has been removed. Polymarket seldom scruples on the ethics of its prediction markets, allowing users to profit on plenty of war-related outcomes and [deadly disasters](). Several bettors [made millions of dollars]() on predicting when the US would airstrike Iran. Another [recently pulled in]() over $553,000 on a prediction on whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from power after the Iranian leader was assassinated in joint US and Israeli airstrikes on Friday. It's hard to complain that the line is being drawn at nuclear conflict, but it's telling that Polymarket only took the bet down after it surged in popularity. That such a prediction on a nuclear blast was allowed in the first place comes amid increasing controversy over government and military insiders potentially using prediction markets to profit off war and other geopolitical events. In January, an anonymous Polymarket user [walked away with more than $400,000]() after placing a bet that Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro would be ousted as leader by the end of the month, just hours before US troops invaded the country and abducted him . The following month, Israeli authorities [arrested]() several citizens and IDF reservists for using classified information to place Polymarket bets on the airstrikes on Iran during the Twelve-Day War in June. The international version of Polymarket is currently not subject to US trading laws, which prohibit wagers related to war, terrorism, and assassinations. To access the site, US users typically use a VPN to mask their location. But the Trump administration recently allowed Polymarket to form a US entity, which some critics see as the government signaling that it'd looked the other way. The administration also dropped several investigations into the platform, where Donald Trump Jr, the president's son, serves on the advisory board. **More on prediction markets:** [*Anonymous Polymarket Accounts Won $1.2 Million on Trump’s Iran Strikes in Suspicious Bets*]() ## Author At Futurism, my work has often centered on bringing a sense of clarity and insight to complex topics ranging from the regulation of emerging technologies to the esoteric ideologies of Silicon Valley executives, while striving not to lose the poetic sense of awe inspired by often-obscure fields like astrophysics and quantum computing. I broke the story of CNET using AI to produce articles that turned out to be riddled with factual errors and plagiarism — a dam-breaking inflection point, as I've reported, that's inspired copycats and endless discourse while beguiling stakeholders ranging from tech giants to purveyors of spam around the web. My work at Futurism has been cited by publications including CBS News, the Los Angeles Times, Vice, Gizmodo, Engadget, the Verge, and Vanity Fair. I grew up in locales ranging from India to China, and now live in the exotic suburbs of Virginia. In my free time, I'm an avid reader of weird sci-fi literature, an aficionado of East Asian cinema, and, regrettably, a relapsed gamer. Allegedly, I’m working on a debut novel, currently untitled. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()