--- title: "Johns Hopkins Professor: US Will Hit COVID Herd Immunity by April" description: "Dr. Marty Makary believes that rising vaccination rates and falling cases means the United States will reach herd immunity from COVID by April." date: "2021-02-20" modified: "2021-02-20" authors: - name: "Tony Ho Tran" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/ttran" url: "https://futurism.com/neoscope/johns-hopkins-professor-covid-herd-immunity-april" categories: - "Developments" - "Health & Medicine" tags: - "coronavirus" - "covid" - "health" - "johns hopkins" --- # Johns Hopkins Professor: US Will Hit COVID Herd Immunity by April ![A COVID-19 reserve held back intended to be used as second booster shots by the Trump administration doesn't actually exist, the Washington Post reports.]() *\Image: Image via Pixabay/Victor Tangermann\* COVID-19 will be “mostly gone” by April, according to a Johns Hopkins professor. Dr. Marty Makary, a researcher at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, points to several reasons to be hopeful in a [new op-ed for *The Wall Street Journal*]()*.* He believes a combination of natural immunity from previous infection, rising vaccination rates, and a dramatic drop in cases mean America will reach herd immunity by April. In fact, Makary estimates that as many as 55 percent of Americans already have immunity to COVID. "There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection," Makary wrote. "As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect COVID will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.” Other experts believe things are substantially more complicated. The [*New York Times* reports that]() according to a model recently released by public health data group PHICOR, the US *could* reach herd immunity by April if the country dramatically increases the rate of vaccinations to 5 million shots per day. That would be a massive increase from its current rate of about 1.7 million shots per day. "There are still key pieces of missing information that could substantially affect what may happen to the pandemic over the ensuing months," Dr. Bruce Y. Lee, who leads research at PHICOR, told the *Times**. "*Should many people lose immunity over the next several months after having recovered from infections, that would make many more people susceptible to the virus again." Additional variables include whether or not we relax social distancing measures, as well as the impact of new deadlier variants of the coronavirus as they spread throughout the US. Still, Makary’s prediction is a reason to be hopeful — but at the same time**,** it’s crucial we remain careful and take precautions against the spread of COVID. That means wearing masks, maintaining social distancing, and [avoiding ]()[insurrectionist super spreader events](). ## Author Tony Tran is a former reporter for Futurism, and now an editor at the Daily Beast. His work has been seen in Playboy, HuffPost, Narratively, and wherever else fine writing is published. He lives in Chicago where he frequently plans tabletop gaming sessions for his friends.