--- title: "Damning Political Research Finds That the People With the Least Understanding Have the Most Confidence" description: "Far be it from us to disparage our friends doing important research in cognitive psychology, but some scientific questions really answer themselves." date: "2026-03-14" modified: "2026-03-14" authors: - name: "Joe Wilkins" job_title: "Correspondent" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jwilkins" url: "https://futurism.com/health-medicine/research-politics-dunning-kruger" categories: - "Brain" - "Health & Medicine" - "Mental Health" - "Studies" --- # Damning Political Research Finds That the People With the Least Understanding Have the Most Confidence ![A man in a tuxedo with a bow tie, tinted blue, is holding a glass of dark liquid towards the camera. The background is bright red with a repeating pattern of white stars.]() *Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: Getty Images* Far be it from us to disparage our friends doing important research in cognitive psychology, but some scientific questions really answer themselves. New research [published in the *Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied*]() and [spotted by *PsyPost*]() suggests something grim: that people who most outspoken about their politics actually know the least about them. The psych researchers surveyed 216 US adults living in the US. Each was asked to take a 60 question exam, which contained an equal number of questions favoring left- and right-wing leanings, as well as 20 generic questions. Participants were also asked to rate their confidence before and after answering the multiple-choice questions, as well as a questionnaire meant to measure their political leanings. Though the average participant was broadly overconfident in their political knowledge, two groups stood out as having the worst results: those with less political knowledge overall, and those with right-wing views. "We found that people are generally overconfident in their political knowledge, especially those who truly don't know much about politics (the classic Dunning-Kruger effect)," the researchers wrote, referencing the [cognitive bias]() in which those who know the least about a subject tend to overestimate their understanding. "We also want to emphasize that when we say 'political knowledge' we mean verifiable political facts, like who the speaker of the house is or how many votes are needed to pass a bill," the researchers clarified. "So, we were not presenting highly emotional or biased information for our participants to judge, and thus our results might not replicate in more politicized contexts." As the first research of its kind by a group of cognitive psychologists — particularly in the field of [metacognition]() — the paper builds on a [number]() [of studies]() in the world of political science which point to similar outcomes. Either way, it seems to confirm what many of us suspected all along: the Dunning-Kruger effect is real, and its votes count just as much as yours. **More on politics:** *[Democracy Itself Is Falling Apart, Harvard Professor Warns]()* ## Author At Futurism, I focus on the intersection of technology and power — examining the economics, history, and politics behind today’s dystopian headlines. As a writer, I’m interested in topics ranging from AI’s impact on labor to startups nobody asked for. My prior work includes bylines in Jacobin, Verso, and Blue Labyrinths. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Forbes, The Guardian, MIT Technology Review, Time, The Nation, Mother Jones, The Verge, and Wired. I grew up in Michigan, attending Central Michigan University as well as Ball State University, where I earned a master of music. I now live in Brooklyn with my girlfriend and our cat Ziti. On weekends, you can find me hunched over a cold pint arguing geopolitics with the other transplants. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()