--- title: "Ebola Expert Fears Outbreak Is Heading Into “Nightmare Scenario”" description: "The Ebola outbreak in the DRC is likely to be far worse than we currently know, Ebola expert Simon Mardel warns." date: "2026-06-05" modified: "2026-06-05" authors: - name: "Joe Wilkins" job_title: "Correspondent" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jwilkins" url: "https://futurism.com/health-medicine/ebola-expert-warns-outbreak-virus-congo" categories: - "Health & Medicine" - "Medical" - "Pathogens" - "Viruses" --- # Ebola Expert Fears Outbreak Is Heading Into “Nightmare Scenario” ![Members of the Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) Ebola response team enter an isolation area outside the General Referral Hospital of Mongbwalu during outbreak preparedness and infection prevention activities.]() *Michel Lunanga / Getty Images* The third-largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded is currently ripping through the Democratic Republic of Congo, with over 1,000 reported cases and 233 confirmed deaths so far. While that would be horrible enough on its own, experts are now warning that the outbreak may have started much earlier than previously believed— meaning there could be hundreds more carriers milling around, undetected. As emergency medical professional and Ebola expert Simon Mardel [told the *Independent*](), the true scope of the outbreak could even make it the worst Ebola emergency in history. Having [worked on the frontlines]() of three decades' worth of outbreaks of the terrible disease, Mardel said there's a critical gap between how many Ebola carriers health agencies have documented, and how many are actually infected. "I think it's safe to say it could be unprecedented," Mardel said. "The words an epidemiologist should never want to hear are 'unrecognized chains of transmission.'" In order to combat outbreaks like this, Mardel notes that emergency workers need to obtain a complete picture of who's been infected. If an outbreak reaches 100 confirmed cases, for example, the Ebola expert explains there are likely 2,000 close contacts who need to be traced and monitored. Any one of those unidentified contacts could easily be a carrier themselves — forming the "unrecognized chains" that could spell disaster. Already, Mardel believes contact tracers "are lagging behind," as Ebola cases have spilled beyond the DRC and into Uganda. "All the data shows that by five days, and by some markers three days, the die is cast and you can start to see who is going to die," he told the *Independent*. The nightmare scenario, he explains, would be for Ebola to reach Nigeria, Africa's most heavily populated country. During the 2014 Ebola outbreak — believed to have begun in Guinea before spreading to Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria — was the second largest in history, claiming [11,325 lives]() according to the World Health Organization. The true scope of the Ebola disaster remains to be seen. But with [major funding cuts]() to global health programs sidelining hundreds of staffers with on-the-ground experience combating Ebola, it's already too late to prevent a tragedy. **More on viral outbreaks:** *[DOGE Made Drastic Cuts to a Global Vaccine Assistance Program. Now There's a Deadly Measles Outbreak in Bangladesh]()* ## Author At Futurism, I focus on the intersection of technology and power — examining the economics, history, and politics behind today’s dystopian headlines. As a writer, I’m interested in topics ranging from AI’s impact on labor to startups nobody asked for. My prior work includes bylines in Jacobin, Verso, and Blue Labyrinths. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Forbes, The Guardian, MIT Technology Review, Time, The Nation, Mother Jones, The Verge, and Wired. I grew up in Michigan, attending Central Michigan University as well as Ball State University, where I earned a master of music. I now live in Brooklyn with my girlfriend and our cat Ziti. On weekends, you can find me hunched over a cold pint arguing geopolitics with the other transplants. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()