--- title: "Researchers Say Earth Is Headed for “Jaw-Dropping” Population Decline" description: "People around the globe are having way fewer babies. By 2100 that might turn into a pretty big problem for humanity — not the relief one might expect." date: "2020-07-15" modified: "2020-07-15" authors: - name: "Victor Tangermann" job_title: "Senior Editor" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/victor" url: "https://futurism.com/global-birth-rates-falling-precipitiously" categories: - "Science & Energy" tags: - "fertility" - "fertility rates" - "overpopulation" - "population" --- # Researchers Say Earth Is Headed for “Jaw-Dropping” Population Decline ![People around the globe are having way fewer babies. By 2100 that might turn into a pretty big problem for humanity — not the relief one might expect.]() *\Image: Image via Pxfuel\* People around the globe are having way fewer babies. By the year 2100, that might turn into a pretty big problem for humanity — rather than the relief one might expect. If they aren't already, dozens of countries' populations will be going into decline in this century, according to a [new study]() published in the *Lancet* this week. 23 countries are expected to feel this effect intensify, with their populations dropping to half of what they are now by the year 2100. The global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, according to the new projection, and then drop off to 8.8 billion towards the end of the century. "That's a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline," Christopher Murray, co-author and researcher at the University of Washington, Seattle, [told the *BBC*](). "I think it's incredibly hard to think this through and recognize how big a thing this is; it's extraordinary, we'll have to reorganize societies." The reality is that with more women receiving an education and entering the work force, combined with the wide availability of contraception, fertility rates are dropping, sometimes precipitously, around the world — a stark reversal of the baby boom following the Second World War. Countries including Spain, Portugal, and Thailand will have their populations more than halve by the end of the century — "jaw-dropping," according to Murray. But aren't fewer humans better for a ravished world that's rapidly being drained of its resources? The researchers suggest that there may be fewer babies being born, but any positive consequences for the environment would be offset by the challenges of a rapidly aging population. Much older populations "will create enormous social change," Murray told the *BBC*. "Who pays tax in a massively aged world? Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? Who looks after the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work?" "We need a soft landing," he added. Declining populations around the globe will force our hand to come up with solutions. The success of economies around the world will become increasingly dependent on immigrants and open borders. Africa will only feel the effects of declining populations much later, with populations in several African nations ballooning, instead of shrinking, in population size by 2100. In fact, the researchers note that Nigeria is projected to become the second most populous country in the world, with 791 million people by 2100. "We will have many more people of African descent in many more countries as we go through this," Murray told the *BBC*, noting that the world will have to address "challenges around racism" as a result. It's unclear how the world should adapt to these looming realities. We've only seen limited success in promoting childbirth using policy tools like longer maternity and paternity leave, childcare, and financial incentives. "If you can't \[find a solution\] then eventually the species disappears, but that's a few centuries away," Murray said. ## Author I've been at Futurism since 2017, where my role has evolved to encompass design, writing, and increasingly editing. I've always been fascinated by space exploration and advanced transportation, which I've leaned into by interviewing luminaries in those fields while closely following the dimensions of policy and regulation that allow next-generation projects to succeed -- or, sometimes, to fail. I'm also keenly interested in the effects of generative AI on society, policies, and democratic institutions, as well as clean energy, physics and biology, and the vagaries of tech leadership. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Ars Technica, Gizmodo, PC Magazine, Jalopnik, Fox News, and the New York Post. I spent my childhood living in locations including Manila, the Philippines, and Geneva, Switzerland, attended McGill University, and now live in Toronto, Canada. Before Futurism I worked at AskMen and a small photography studio. In my free time, I'm an avid gardener, foodie, and craft beer lover, as well as a maker of artisanal hot pepper sauces. I have a magnificent dog named Freida. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()