--- title: "An Analysis Just Found Something Extremely Unflattering About What Happens to Users of Prediction Markets" description: "If betting on prediction markets is supposed to be the smarter choice than plain old sports gambling, the data suggests otherwise." date: "2026-02-06" modified: "2026-02-06" authors: - name: "Frank Landymore" job_title: "Contributing Writer" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/flandymore" url: "https://futurism.com/future-society/prediction-markets-analysis" categories: - "Finance" - "Future Society" --- # An Analysis Just Found Something Extremely Unflattering About What Happens to Users of Prediction Markets ![A man in a white shirt and tie sits in a chair with his hands covering his face, appearing stressed or frustrated. In the background, a computer monitor displays blurred financial data, highlighted by a yellow circle against a red backdrop.]() *Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: Getty Images* After an analyst found that users are losing money faster on sites like [Polymarket]() than on traditional sports gambling platforms, the US's largest prediction market Kalshi hit back with a decidedly unusual response. As [*Bloomberg* reports](), the betting platform told it that the analysis was part of an "extortion plot" by the startup that had collected the data, Juice Reel — before, even more puzzlingly, backing off from the stunning claim. The report was conducted by Jordan Bender, an equity research analyst at the bank Citizens. Using Juice Reel's data, it found that in the first three months, users on prediction markets like Kalshi were losing more money than on traditional gambling sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, in proportion to the amount of money they wagered. If true, the findings put a considerable dent in prediction markets' self-styled image as a more cerebral form of betting, allowing customers to place wagers on a variety of real-world events, ranging from presidential elections to natural disasters to military interventions. And because bettors are competing against each other, instead of the house, these sites claim that means users have a more reliable way of making money. Though they're essentially dressed-up casinos, they also seek to be seen as an authority on the future itself. Last month, for example, Kalshi [partnered with *CNN*]() to provide real time prediction data on its broadcasts. Polymarket [announced]() a similar partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of *The Wall Street Journal*, barely a week later. These add heft and credibility to their projections, even though Kalshi's and Polymarket's projections are entirely determined by users' bets. Of course, if Kalshi and similar services are just as much as a money sink as plain old gambling, then that elevated veneer vanishes. And they appear to: Bender found that the bottom quarter of users lost about 28 centers of every dollar they put on the lane, compared to just 11 cents per dollar on traditional gambling hubs. Kalshi's tried-and-true defense against these claims? Calling the data "flat-out wrong," it said in a statement to *Bloomberg*. Its head of communications Elisabeth Diana accused Juice Reel of having a conflict of interest because it sought "investment support" from Kalshi in the past. She also claimed that Juice Reel's founder offered to "defuse the situation" if he was given a meeting with Kalshi's CEO. "Please consider the source and its motives," she told *Bloomberg* in an emailed statement. "This is extortion." Juice Reel's CEO Ricky Gold tells it differently. "They called and messaged us, pressuring us to tell *Bloomberg* that our data is inaccurate," Gold told the publication. "We stand for transparency, we stand for helping bettors, traders understand their activity across the platform, and we stand behind our data." Kalshi continued to dispute the findings and denied pressuring Gold, per the reporting. But it's now changed its tune on the whole alleged blackmail angle. "We are in ongoing discussions about Juice Reel's legal ability to obtain our data, but after further review, we don't believe the intention was extortion," the company said in an updated statement last week. The touchy response from Kalshi also comes amid increasing calls to regulate prediction markets after several [scandals]() captured national attention. The most significant came in January, when a slew of traders on Polymarket [placed sizable bets on the prediction that US forces would enter Venezuela]() just hours before Trump launched the operation to capture the country's leader Nicolas Maduro. One "lucky" bettor made more than $400,000. **More on gambling:** [*Golden Globes Constantly Begs Viewers to Place Polymarket Bets*]() ## Author At Futurism, my work has often centered on bringing a sense of clarity and insight to complex topics ranging from the regulation of emerging technologies to the esoteric ideologies of Silicon Valley executives, while striving not to lose the poetic sense of awe inspired by often-obscure fields like astrophysics and quantum computing. I broke the story of CNET using AI to produce articles that turned out to be riddled with factual errors and plagiarism — a dam-breaking inflection point, as I've reported, that's inspired copycats and endless discourse while beguiling stakeholders ranging from tech giants to purveyors of spam around the web. My work at Futurism has been cited by publications including CBS News, the Los Angeles Times, Vice, Gizmodo, Engadget, the Verge, and Vanity Fair. I grew up in locales ranging from India to China, and now live in the exotic suburbs of Virginia. In my free time, I'm an avid reader of weird sci-fi literature, an aficionado of East Asian cinema, and, regrettably, a relapsed gamer. Allegedly, I’m working on a debut novel, currently untitled. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()