--- title: "$1 Million Polymarket Bet That Spain Will Win First World Cup Game Backfires Epically" description: "A Polymarket user placed a million dollar bet on Spain winning its first World Cup game, and it's backfired spectacularly." date: "2026-06-16" modified: "2026-06-16" authors: - name: "Frank Landymore" job_title: "Contributing Writer" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/flandymore" url: "https://futurism.com/future-society/polymarket-world-cup-backfires" categories: - "Finance" - "Future Society" --- # $1 Million Polymarket Bet That Spain Will Win First World Cup Game Backfires Epically ![Photo illustration featuring Pico Lopes #4 of Cabo Verde dribbling the ball as Pedri #20 of Spain defends during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group H match between Spain and Cabo Verde at Atlanta Stadium on June 15, 2026.]() *Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: Andrew J. Clark / ISI Photos / ISI Photos via Getty Images; Shutterstock* Most see Spain as the out-and-out favorites to win the World Cup. So why not put a bunch of money on them to win their opening game at the tournament against puny Cabo Verde? That's what one genius on [Polymarket]() did, and it backfired spectacularly. The [anonymous account]() put nearly $1 million on Spain to come out ahead against the archipelagic nation with a population of barely 500,000 people, and stood to win $1,085,943.48, according to Polymarket's pre-match odds. But when the final whistle was blown, the score stood at 0-0. Cabo Verde's heroic defending, spearheaded [by an epic performance by their 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozhina](), had toppled this titanic bet, as well as dampened the Spaniards' World Cup hopes. https://twitter.com/PolymarketSport/status/2066535625965154595 Few could have foreseen Spain firing a blank against the 67th ranked nation in FIFA's official standing, having blown everyone away at the 2024 Euros — except another user, who made over $9,000,000 [after betting that Spain would *not* win the game]() and putting money on a spread that Cabo Verde would keep the goal difference to within 2.5 goals. Still, placing such a huge sum, no matter how safe the odds, speaks to a certain level of arrogance that prediction hubs like Polymarket and [Kalshi]() have been happy to foster. They position themselves as the thinking man's alternative to crude gambling, laundering their image through partnerships with news organizations like *CNN*, who display their prediction data during live broadcasts. ("I wouldn't describe it as gambling" but a "mix of betting and options trading," one college student whose been betting on prediction markets revealingly [told *The Guardian*]() earlier this year*.*) These platforms also claim you're betting against other players instead of against the house, which everyone knows always wins. So, the pitch in a nutshell: if you monitor the situation hard enough, you can make easy money over the laggards who don't have their ear to the ground. But boast all the hidden insights you want, sometimes the unpredictable happens. Although maybe our unfortunate bettor should've just monitored the situation harder; if they looked back, they would've seen that Spain has only won its opening World Cup game once since 2010. **More on prediction markets:** [*Sports Betting Scandals Are Tearing College Football Apart*]() ## Author At Futurism, my work has often centered on bringing a sense of clarity and insight to complex topics ranging from the regulation of emerging technologies to the esoteric ideologies of Silicon Valley executives, while striving not to lose the poetic sense of awe inspired by often-obscure fields like astrophysics and quantum computing. I broke the story of CNET using AI to produce articles that turned out to be riddled with factual errors and plagiarism — a dam-breaking inflection point, as I've reported, that's inspired copycats and endless discourse while beguiling stakeholders ranging from tech giants to purveyors of spam around the web. My work at Futurism has been cited by publications including CBS News, the Los Angeles Times, Vice, Gizmodo, Engadget, the Verge, and Vanity Fair. I grew up in locales ranging from India to China, and now live in the exotic suburbs of Virginia. In my free time, I'm an avid reader of weird sci-fi literature, an aficionado of East Asian cinema, and, regrettably, a relapsed gamer. Allegedly, I’m working on a debut novel, currently untitled. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()