--- title: "Polymarket Gets Major Prediction Completely Wrong After Loudly Boasting About It" description: "Polymarket's handling of the recent state primary elections in Texas may be a sign of things to come for the nation's information ecosystem." date: "2026-03-05" modified: "2026-03-05" authors: - name: "Joe Wilkins" job_title: "Correspondent" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jwilkins" url: "https://futurism.com/future-society/polymarket-texas-election" categories: - "Blockchain" - "Finance" - "Future Society" --- # Polymarket Gets Major Prediction Completely Wrong After Loudly Boasting About It ![Image of a Ken Paxton campaign event, with stylized colors.]() *Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: Sergio Flores / Getty Images* When gambling platform Polymarket made an [early morning announcement]() projecting Ken Paxton would win the Texas Republican senate primary, it had no polling data to go off, and no survey methodology to inform the decision. The announcement — styled as a "BREAKING" piece of polling news, invoking the language of journalists — instead followed the betting line: millions of dollars which, in that moment, skewed heavily toward Paxton. Voters, it turned out, had another candidate in mind: John Cornyn, who only had an "18 percent chance" of victory at the time of Polymarket's announcement. The two have since entered into a runoff, [per the *New York Times*](), meaning anybody could still win via ballotage. That's a far cry from Polymarket's original prediction, which was an outright victory for Paxton in the first round of voting. It's also part and parcel for prediction markets like Polymarket, which increasingly styles itself as a newswire service on social media, enticing users to bet big on the day's chaotic events. https://twitter.com/Polymarket/status/2028854871684690245?s=20 Just like Polymarket's platform — where users can bet on a range of issues, from [US airstrikes on Venezuela]() to the [#1 app on the Apple App Store]() — Polymarket's newsy announcements take on many forms. "JUST IN: Police activity underway at Epstein Island[]()," [one post]() on the company's X-formerly-Twitter profile declares. "BREAKING: Iraq hit by nationwide blackout," [another hollers](). As Polymarket inundates millions of timelines with newsy statements, the efficacy of each announcement can be hard to parse. The Epstein island police activity, for example, is likely immaterial to anyone betting on markets related to Jeffrey Epstein on Polymarket. As [*TMZ* wrote](), recent police activity on the infamous Little St James is "related to an active investigation that does NOT have to do with Epstein." Other posts all but beg users to bet a certain line: "JUST IN: The Pentagon declares the US will have complete control of Iranian skies in under a week," [another challenges](). Polymarket's reckless approach to handling information is made even more egregious by new brand partnerships with legitimate corporate newsgroups. Dow Jones, a division of News Corp and publisher of *The Wall Street Journal*, *Barron's*, and *Investor's Business Daily* [inked a deal]() with Polymarket back in January, for example. Media platforms like [Substack]() and *Yahoo Finance*, meanwhile, have also signed new content agreements with the company. Even Polymarket's arch-competitor, Kalshi, is getting in on the frenzy, having [partnered with *CNN*]() to run live betting odds on world events as the newsroom reports them. As legitimate journalism [swirls the drain]() for what might be its final time, prediction markets have positioned themselves as its maladapted heir: a system transforming information into a commodity to be bought and sold. **More on Polymarket** [*Prediction Markets Are Sucking Huge Numbers of Young People Into Gambling*]() []() []() ## Author At Futurism, I focus on the intersection of technology and power — examining the economics, history, and politics behind today’s dystopian headlines. As a writer, I’m interested in topics ranging from AI’s impact on labor to startups nobody asked for. My prior work includes bylines in Jacobin, Verso, and Blue Labyrinths. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Forbes, The Guardian, MIT Technology Review, Time, The Nation, Mother Jones, The Verge, and Wired. I grew up in Michigan, attending Central Michigan University as well as Ball State University, where I earned a master of music. I now live in Brooklyn with my girlfriend and our cat Ziti. On weekends, you can find me hunched over a cold pint arguing geopolitics with the other transplants. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()