--- title: "If You Bet on Polymarket, This New Study May Cause You Physical Pain" description: "A new study found that the vast majority of prediction market users subsidize a tiny cabal of skilled gamblers and inside traders." date: "2026-04-30" modified: "2026-04-30" authors: - name: "Joe Wilkins" job_title: "Correspondent" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jwilkins" url: "https://futurism.com/future-society/polymarket-gambling-sharks" categories: - "Blockchain" - "Finance" - "Future Society" --- # If You Bet on Polymarket, This New Study May Cause You Physical Pain ![The Polymarket logo displayed prominently in white text with a geometric icon on a dark background featuring blurred colorful data or interface elements.]() *Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images* In traditional gambling halls, it's common knowledge that the house always wins. On newly popular prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, it's a little different yet substantively the same: instead of the casino coming out on top, a tiny group of highly skilled traders rules the roost — their winnings subsidized by every other small-time sucker, who statistically is almost certainly you. According to a [new paper]() by researchers at the London Business School and Yale, prediction markets are largely dominated by the top 3.14 percent of users. On a platform like Polymarket, which has a monthly [active user base]() of around 700,000 bettors, this means around just 21,000 highly informed gamblers are coming out ahead. Everyone else is effectively flipping a coin at best, and flushing money down the drain at worst. "These accounts," the researchers write, "generate most of the trading volume but do not systematically improve price accuracy. Prediction market accuracy thus reflects the wisdom of an informed minority, not the wisdom of crowds." The researchers indexed 1.7 million accounts across $13.76 billion in bets. Each bettor was tested to see whether their winnings were consistent. Though plenty of people won, only the 3.14 percent of users showed a predictive ability exceeding random chance, allowing them to capture over 30 percent of the available profits. Meanwhile, a little over two-thirds of all players were net losers, functionally transferring their funds directly to the tiny cabal of predictive gurus. The study provides some sound financial advice — that gambling is a sucker's game — but also pokes a huge hole in the so-called "wisdom of the crowds" narrative, which is the widespread misconception that accurate predictions come from millions of people pooling their knowledge together. In reality, the crowd is funding a small club of skilled traders, plenty of whom are surely coming onto the gaming floor armed with [insider]() [information](). **More on prediction markets:** *[Anonymous Kalshi User Makes Huge Bet That the White House Is About to Confirm Alien Life or Technology]()* ## Author At Futurism, I focus on the intersection of technology and power — examining the economics, history, and politics behind today’s dystopian headlines. As a writer, I’m interested in topics ranging from AI’s impact on labor to startups nobody asked for. My prior work includes bylines in Jacobin, Verso, and Blue Labyrinths. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Forbes, The Guardian, MIT Technology Review, Time, The Nation, Mother Jones, The Verge, and Wired. I grew up in Michigan, attending Central Michigan University as well as Ball State University, where I earned a master of music. I now live in Brooklyn with my girlfriend and our cat Ziti. On weekends, you can find me hunched over a cold pint arguing geopolitics with the other transplants. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()