--- title: "Israel Arrests Members of Military for Placing Polymarket Bets Using Inside Information on Upcoming Strikes" description: "Israel has arrested numerous military personnel for allegedly placing Polymarket bets on upcoming strikes." date: "2026-02-13" modified: "2026-02-13" authors: - name: "Joe Wilkins" job_title: "Correspondent" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jwilkins" url: "https://futurism.com/future-society/israel-military-polymarket" categories: - "Blockchain" - "Cryptocurrency" - "Finance" - "Future Society" --- # Israel Arrests Members of Military for Placing Polymarket Bets Using Inside Information on Upcoming Strikes ![A large explosion with thick black and gray smoke billowing into the sky in an urban area. The explosion is centered between two multi-story buildings with numerous windows and balconies. Electrical wires crisscross the scene, and several people are visible on the street, some crouching or running away from the blast. The sky is clear and blue.]() *Saeed M. M. T. Jaras / Anadolu via Getty Images* For months, experts have warned that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket were ripe for abuse. Now, some Israeli soldiers may have proved them right in particularly grisly fashion: by betting on strikes they allegedly helped plan. According [to the *Wall Street Journal*](), several Israeli citizens, including a number of Israeli Defense Force reservists, have been arrested over the use of classified information to place Polymarket bets. Per the *WSJ*'s reporting, one as-yet anonymous Polymarket account, [ricosuave666]() — an apparent nod to the [Latin pop superstar]() — made seven predictions about Israel's twelve-day war with Iran last June, before walking away with over $150,000 in combined bets. Others took notice at the time, though the account went dormant for about six months. It finally reactivated in January, reportedly to bet on Israel's next strike on Iran. Though Israel carried out [plenty of]() [other strikes]() in January as tensions remained steady with Iran, a direct attack on the Islamic Republic hasn't been reported. Many mysteries remain. Since the *WSJ* published its article, it seems the Polymarket account has been scrubbed, and the publication didn't confirm ricosuave66 was one of the accounts under investigation. Still, the news follows a number of other fishy-looking inside trades, like the bettor who [made out like a bandit]() after an improbable bet placed just hours before the deadly kidnapping of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the US military. If the Israeli bettors are shown to be military insiders, their case is sure to become the exemplar of everything wrong with prediction markets — like the fact that they allow bets on violent international events in the first place. **More on Polymarket:** *[It Seems Almost Statistically Impossible That This Polymarket Bettor Didn’t Profit Off Inside Knowledge About the Super Bowl Half Time Show]()* ## Author At Futurism, I focus on the intersection of technology and power — examining the economics, history, and politics behind today’s dystopian headlines. As a writer, I’m interested in topics ranging from AI’s impact on labor to startups nobody asked for. My prior work includes bylines in Jacobin, Verso, and Blue Labyrinths. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Forbes, The Guardian, MIT Technology Review, Time, The Nation, Mother Jones, The Verge, and Wired. I grew up in Michigan, attending Central Michigan University as well as Ball State University, where I earned a master of music. I now live in Brooklyn with my girlfriend and our cat Ziti. On weekends, you can find me hunched over a cold pint arguing geopolitics with the other transplants. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()