--- title: "New Law Would Prevent Trump Officials From Invading a Country and Profiting by Placing Bets on Polymarket" description: "A new bill introduced by Ritchie Torres would ban government officials from trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket." date: "2026-01-06" modified: "2026-01-06" authors: - name: "Joe Wilkins" job_title: "Correspondent" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/jwilkins" url: "https://futurism.com/future-society/insider-trading-trump-prediction" categories: - "Blockchain" - "Cryptocurrency" - "Finance" - "Future Society" --- # New Law Would Prevent Trump Officials From Invading a Country and Profiting by Placing Bets on Polymarket ![A new bill introduced by Ritchie Torres would ban government officials from trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.]() *Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: XNY/Star Max/GC Images via Getty Images* "Men do not make laws," goes a maxim [attributed to]() US president Calvin Coolidge. "They do but discover them." If that's true, then the US attack on Venezuela just uncovered a legislative mother lode. A new law proposed by New York representative Ritchie Torres on Monday would make it illegal for government employees with access to nonpublic information from trading on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. If that sounds like something that should probably already be illegal, Coolidge might agree, in his own [*laissez-faire* way](). "Laws must be justified by something more than the will of the majority," he concluded. "They must rest on the eternal foundation of righteousness." In any case, the "Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026," would include new restrictions on elected officials, political appointees, and executive branch staffers, [according to *Forbes*](). It would also apply to government employees who have not yet been privy to nonpublic documents, but "may reasonably obtain such material nonpublic information in the course of performing official duties." The proposed legislation comes on the heels of [compelling evidence]() that someone with inside information about the recent kidnapping of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro placed a series of large bets on Polymarket on whether an attack would take place. Just two days before the surprise attack, the account in question invested over $30,000 in a prediction that either Maduro would be "out" or that US troops would set foot "in Venezuela by" January 31st. The payout was staggering: a profit of $400,000 in less than 24 hours, as sports entrepreneur [Joe Pompliano estimated](). "Seems pretty suspicious!" Pompliano wrote. "Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged." Beyond the Venezuela attack, prediction markets have raised serious anxiety about geopolitical strife around the world. Recent advances in the sector have made it so that crypto bros can gamble on [deadly conflicts in real-time](), betting [thousands of dollars]() on questions like "will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31?" Back in October, [*Reuters* reported]() that the Trump Media and Technology Group was working with Crypto.com to implement prediction market functionality into Truth Social. That came as dozens of federal investigations into crypto-based [price fixing](), [securities fraud](), and [regulatory noncompliance]() have been dropped at the [Trump administration's urging](). Two of those cases were against prediction platforms [Polymarket]() —the very same implicated in the Venezuela allegations — and [Kalshi](), for selling options contracts related to congressional elections. Whether Torres' new bill makes it very far remains to be seen. Recent [history shows]() that Congress has little appetite for regulation of insider trading — and for now, there doesn't yet seem to be a wager on the outcome of the bill on either Polymarket or Kalshi. **More on Venezuela:** *[That Video of Happy Crying Venezuelans After Maduro’s Kidnapping? It’s AI Slop]()* ## Author At Futurism, I focus on the intersection of technology and power — examining the economics, history, and politics behind today’s dystopian headlines. As a writer, I’m interested in topics ranging from AI’s impact on labor to startups nobody asked for. My prior work includes bylines in Jacobin, Verso, and Blue Labyrinths. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Forbes, The Guardian, MIT Technology Review, Time, The Nation, Mother Jones, The Verge, and Wired. I grew up in Michigan, attending Central Michigan University as well as Ball State University, where I earned a master of music. I now live in Brooklyn with my girlfriend and our cat Ziti. On weekends, you can find me hunched over a cold pint arguing geopolitics with the other transplants. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()