--- title: "Expert Says Collapse of Human Civilization Looks Like the Most Likely Scenario" description: "A new book that covers 5,000 years and the collapse of more than 400 societies argues that we're in for a rude awakening." date: "2025-08-04" modified: "2025-08-04" authors: - name: "Victor Tangermann" job_title: "Senior Editor" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/victor" url: "https://futurism.com/collapse-human-civilization-likely-scenario" categories: - "Future Society" tags: - "civilization collapse" - "climate change" - "global warming" --- # Expert Says Collapse of Human Civilization Looks Like the Most Likely Scenario ![A new book that covers 5,000 years and the collapse of more than 400 societies argues that we're in for a rude awakening.]() *\Image: Getty / Futurism\* New research is warning that the most likely outcome is that human civilization is poised for collapse. As [*The Guardian* reports](), a sweeping new historical survey that analyzes 5,000 years and the collapse of more than 400 societies makes the case that we're in for a rude awakening. "We can’t put a date on Doomsday, but by looking at the 5,000 years of \[civilisation\], we can understand the trajectories we face today — and self-termination is most likely," Luke Kemp, research fellow at the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, told the British newspaper. "I’m pessimistic about the future," he added. "But I’m optimistic about people." Kemp warned of narcissistic and psychopathic leaders — a powerful but small "oligarchy" working against the interests of the rest of us — who turn a blind eye to existential threats like [global warming](), nuclear weapons, and AI. Scientists have [long warned]() that escalating global temperatures caused by human activities could eventually tip us over the edge, leading to food shortages, unbearable heat, and droughts — not to mention the strain and instability that all those problems place on everything else. To Kemp, we can learn from thousands of years of human civilization to get a sense of how things will eventually play out. In his book, he used the term "Goliaths" to refer to kingdoms and empires that dominated others using weaponry and other threatening tactics. "History is best told as a story of organised crime," he told the *Guardian*. "It is one group creating a monopoly on resources through the use of violence over a certain territory and population." But these groups don't tend to last and eventually collapse under their own weight due to inequality, the researcher argued, and greed by those in power. "Then as elites extract more wealth from the people and the land, they make societies more fragile, leading to infighting, corruption, immiserization of the masses, less healthy people, overexpansion, environmental degradation, and poor decision making by a small oligarchy," he said. "The hollowed-out shell of a society is eventually cracked asunder by shocks such as disease, war or climate change." So how does this all pertain to the 21st century specifically? Kemp argued that we're suffering under "one single, interconnected global Goliath," acting within capitalism. Collapses in [food systems](), the constant threat of [nuclear war](), and a [growing climate crisis]() could eventually lead to the current Goliath's demise. And Kemt didn't hold back when singling out the leaders responsible for bringing us closer to the end. "The three most powerful men in the world are a walking version of the dark triad: Trump is a textbook narcissist, Putin is a cold psychopath, and Xi Jinping came to rule \[China\] by being a master Machiavellian manipulator," he told the *Guardian*. To avoid a total collapse, we need to "create genuine democratic societies to level all the forms of power" and tax the wealthy — which isn't actually as out-of-reach as it sounds, according to Kemt. "Today, people find it easier to imagine that we can build intelligence on silicon than we can do democracy at scale, or that we can escape arms races," he said. "It’s complete bullsh\*t. Of course we can do democracy at scale. We’re a naturally social, altruistic, democratic species, and we all have an anti-dominance intuition." "This is what we're built for," he added. **More on societal collapse:** *[15,000 Scientists Warn Society Could Collapse By 2100 Due to Climate Change]()* ## Author I've been at Futurism since 2017, where my role has evolved to encompass design, writing, and increasingly editing. I've always been fascinated by space exploration and advanced transportation, which I've leaned into by interviewing luminaries in those fields while closely following the dimensions of policy and regulation that allow next-generation projects to succeed -- or, sometimes, to fail. I'm also keenly interested in the effects of generative AI on society, policies, and democratic institutions, as well as clean energy, physics and biology, and the vagaries of tech leadership. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Ars Technica, Gizmodo, PC Magazine, Jalopnik, Fox News, and the New York Post. I spent my childhood living in locations including Manila, the Philippines, and Geneva, Switzerland, attended McGill University, and now live in Toronto, Canada. Before Futurism I worked at AskMen and a small photography studio. In my free time, I'm an avid gardener, foodie, and craft beer lover, as well as a maker of artisanal hot pepper sauces. I have a magnificent dog named Freida. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()