--- title: "We’re So Screwed, Even That “City Killer” Asteroid Doesn’t Want to Destroy Earth Anymore" description: "According to NASA's \"more precise models\" of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4's trajectory, there's only a 0.004 percent chance of it hitting us." date: "2025-02-26" modified: "2025-02-26" authors: - name: "Victor Tangermann" job_title: "Senior Editor" link: "https://futurism.com/authors/victor" url: "https://futurism.com/asteroid-not-destroying-earth-anymore" categories: - "Off-World" - "Space" tags: - "JPL" - "NASA" - "near-earth objects" - "space rock" --- # We’re So Screwed, Even That “City Killer” Asteroid Doesn’t Want to Destroy Earth Anymore ![According to NASA's "more precise models" of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4's trajectory, there's only a 0.004 percent chance of it hitting us.]() *\Image: Getty / Futurism\* Earlier this year, a roughly 200-foot near-Earth asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, [made]() [major]() [headlines](), with NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab warning that there was a small chance it could impact our planet on December 22, 2032. Over the following weeks, the probability of a collision grew steadily, eventually reaching 3.1 percent — or about a [1-in-32 chance]() — according [to figures]() from NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies last week. But fears over a space rock [wiping out one of the most populous cities on Earth]() amounted to nothing. According to the JPL's "more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory," scientists came up with an updated impact probability only 0.004 percent. "There is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century," NASA wrote in a recent [blog post](). "The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on December 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth." In short, not even a near-Earth asteroid was willing to finally [put us out of our mystery](). At least we could soon get an even more precise glimpse of the slacker asteroid. Scientists are hoping to [use NASA's groundbreaking James Webb Space Telescope]() to zoom in on the space rock next month. Intriguingly, according to NASA, there's still a small 1.7 percent chance 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon on December 22, 2032, which could result in a massive collision that's [visible from Earth](). "There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat," University of Arizona asteroid hunter David Rankin [told *New Scientist*]() earlier this month. With a collision with Earth exceedingly unlikely, NASA is still excited to use the opportunity to "test planetary defense science and notification processes," according to the agency's latest update. And the space agency already has some practice when it comes to fending off errant space rocks. In September 2022, NASA [smashed]() its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft into a tiny asteroid called Dimorphos. The groundbreaking mission saw the space rock be knocked off its trajectory, releasing copious amounts of dust and loose rock in the process. Fortunately, it doesn't look like the agency will have to do anything like with 2024 YR4, though. **More on the space rock:** *[Killer Asteroid Could Be Headed for Some of the World's Most Populous Cities]()* ## Author I've been at Futurism since 2017, where my role has evolved to encompass design, writing, and increasingly editing. I've always been fascinated by space exploration and advanced transportation, which I've leaned into by interviewing luminaries in those fields while closely following the dimensions of policy and regulation that allow next-generation projects to succeed -- or, sometimes, to fail. I'm also keenly interested in the effects of generative AI on society, policies, and democratic institutions, as well as clean energy, physics and biology, and the vagaries of tech leadership. My work for Futurism has been cited by publications including Ars Technica, Gizmodo, PC Magazine, Jalopnik, Fox News, and the New York Post. I spent my childhood living in locations including Manila, the Philippines, and Geneva, Switzerland, attended McGill University, and now live in Toronto, Canada. Before Futurism I worked at AskMen and a small photography studio. In my free time, I'm an avid gardener, foodie, and craft beer lover, as well as a maker of artisanal hot pepper sauces. I have a magnificent dog named Freida. ### Author social links [Bluesky]()